How Republicans Can Reconnect With Independents And Win In The Northeast Again
The 2008 election showed Republicans playing to an ever-shrinking base and in the process of becoming a regional party, without a single congressman in the entire region of New England – the party's historic home.
Ten years ago, before the Bush/Cheney/Rove/DeLay-era, centrist Republican congressmen and mayors dotted the Northeast – and only two states north of (and including) Pennsylvania had Democratic governors. Today, they are an endangered species. The phrase "urban Republican" – an idea once embodied by Rudy Giuliani and Steve Goldsmith – sounds more and more like an oxymoron.
How can Republicans regain their foothold and run successfully again in the Northeast, especially in former swing states like New York, New Jersey and Connecticut?
Let’s look at the math. New Jersey and Connecticut are 2 of 7 states where independent voters outnumber Republicans or Democrats. In New York, 47.8% of voters are now registered Democrats, with Republicans at 26.3% and Independents at 25.8%. For Republicans to regain a competitive edge in these states, they need to forge common cause with independent voters.
Independent voters tend to be fiscally conservative, socially progressive and strong on national security. Reaching out to them is entirely consistent with the Republicans’ historic identity as the party of fiscal responsibility, individual liberty and national unity – but there are powerful counter-veiling forces, rigid litmus-test social conservatives who see any outreach to independents as ideological surrender. They are the primary internal obstacle to Republican renewal nationally because of their focus on playing to an ever-shrinking base, but this is especially deadly in the Northeast. Below are a few strategic steps that Republicans should take if they want to emerge from the wilderness re-energized and relevant in the Northeast.
1) Admit the Mistakes of the Bush Era: Republicans looking to reengage voters in the Northeast should speak frankly about the mistakes of the Bush era. They do not need to throw the former President under the bus, but they must show a clear understanding of why the combination of Bush and Tom Delay’s conservative congress alienated so many voters – especially the corrupt hyper-partisanship and unprecedented pork-barrel spending. This honesty will create enough daylight to allow voters to look fresh at a local Republican candidate. Admitting a problem is the first step toward recovery.
2) Regain Credibility on Fiscal Responsibility: There will be a voter backlash against the bailouts and the ballooning deficit – especially as the bad economy drags on and cities start declaring bankruptcy, along the lines of Vallejo, California. Every crisis contains an opportunity, but Republicans need to regain credibility on fiscal issues to benefit. Right now, there doesn’t seem to be a deficit hawk left in DC – Republicans should fill this gap. This is an issue of generational responsibility, at a time when baby boomers’ retirement is set to explode entitlement spending. Tax-cuts are a great contrast, especially on a state-level – and the GOP should sharpen its identity as the party of the entrepreneur. But tax cuts can’t continue to take the place of theology – applied on faith to every problem our nation faces. Republicans must do the math, bring us back to balanced budgets and become a force for fiscal discipline again.
3) Stay Strong on National Security: The morass in Iraq divided the American people on the wider war on terror, but the attacks of September 11th defined a generation and retain personal resonance, especially in the northeast. We are engaged in a non-optional global war against Jihadism, and while some Republicans feel like Churchill in the 1930s, this war is a reality from which we cannot retreat. This does not mean invoking 9/11 at every turn or reflexively seeking to criticize the Obama Administration’s national security team just to provide political contrast – this is bigger than politics – but it does mean sticking to principle. This war is far from over.
4) Embrace the Big Tent: Somehow Republicans have lost common ground – Reagan invoked the Big Tent constantly as a way of collecting libertarian conservatives, national security conservatives, economic conservatives and social conservatives under one banner. But the spirit of outreach and inclusiveness has been drummed out of the GOP – disagreement is seen as disloyalty, and the search for heretics has become a hobby. Libertarians are losing any logical reason to affiliate with the GOP, while centrist Republicans are seen as suspect almost by definition. When Senators like Olympia Snowe or John McCain win re-election with over 70% of the vote, they are considered sell-outs rather than successes. I’ve debated conservatives on TV who were rooting for Norm Coleman to lose, because they considered him insufficiently conservative. This road leads not just to political disaster, but party suicide. Republicans who have won statewide in the Northeast tend to be centrist on social issues, especially on a woman’s right to chose and gay civil rights. Republicans must welcome social moderates into the big tent of the GOP, focus on finding common ground and not treat them as second class citizens. Remember: In a place where everyone thinks alike, nobody is thinking very much.
5) Look like the Party of Lincoln: The Republican Party suffers from a pathetic lack of diversity on its political bench. It is out of step with America in the 21st Century. The candidacies of Michael Steele and Ken Blackwell for RNC Chair and the successes of Bobby Jindal and Joseph Cao in the Big Easy are a start – but only a start. There is a rational reason that minority candidates have felt unwelcome in the Party of Lincoln this side of 1964 [for my take on the back-story, click here]. The regional traditionalist appeals that have helped the GOP gain strength in other regions has contributed to its failure in the northeast, one of the most diverse areas in the United States. President Bush’s hopes to realign Hispanic voters went down with the immigration bill, especially the way opposition was painted as Nativist with assistance of some conservative commentators. The Republican Party needs to actively recruit candidates who look like the full diversity of America – articulating its alternative philosophy of how best to rise out of poverty and succeed in American society. It’s the reaching out that hasn’t been consistently done.
6) Run Against Congress, not Obama: One of the most critical questions facing Republicans in the coming days is whether they will pursue a simply obstructionist opposition to the Obama administration, or whether they will work to find the reasonable legislation and make it more responsible. The obstructionist school will fail at the ballot box in coming years, just as the “No-Bama” strategy failed in the campaign of 2008. President Obama will be the first pop-culture president in decades, so broadly popular and widely covered, he’ll grace publications from People to Rolling Stone, from Time to Newsweek. His largely centrist cabinet appointments have made the desperate “socialist” and “un-American” campaign ploys be seen as the attempts at fear-mongering that they were. Rather than defining the Republican Party simply and instinctively in opposition to the President, GOP candidates should run against the liberal congress. Independent and swing voters understand the virtue of checks and balances as well as James Madison – that’s why they so often split their ticket. The House leadership is considerably more liberal than the cabinet – even less popular than President Bush. Running against them, not Obama, is the answer to restoring balance, building contrast and reinforcing core Republican principles.
There are some people who are in denial about the depth of the GOP’s problems – they will counsel no change, just more of the same, and wait until Democrats over-reach to declare victory. This is an essentially passive strategy. It might be comfortable for some to simply play to a shrinking white, rural, traditionalist base – but it is insufficient to meeting the challenges facing our nation. The Republican Party must modernize, or risk becoming little more than a collection of common grievances. Rediscovering the founding values of individual liberty, fiscal responsibility and national unity – and applying them with renewed consistency – can lead to the Party of Lincoln’s resurgence, even in the Northeast.
Ten years ago, before the Bush/Cheney/Rove/DeLay-era, centrist Republican congressmen and mayors dotted the Northeast – and only two states north of (and including) Pennsylvania had Democratic governors. Today, they are an endangered species. The phrase "urban Republican" – an idea once embodied by Rudy Giuliani and Steve Goldsmith – sounds more and more like an oxymoron.
How can Republicans regain their foothold and run successfully again in the Northeast, especially in former swing states like New York, New Jersey and Connecticut?
Let’s look at the math. New Jersey and Connecticut are 2 of 7 states where independent voters outnumber Republicans or Democrats. In New York, 47.8% of voters are now registered Democrats, with Republicans at 26.3% and Independents at 25.8%. For Republicans to regain a competitive edge in these states, they need to forge common cause with independent voters.
Independent voters tend to be fiscally conservative, socially progressive and strong on national security. Reaching out to them is entirely consistent with the Republicans’ historic identity as the party of fiscal responsibility, individual liberty and national unity – but there are powerful counter-veiling forces, rigid litmus-test social conservatives who see any outreach to independents as ideological surrender. They are the primary internal obstacle to Republican renewal nationally because of their focus on playing to an ever-shrinking base, but this is especially deadly in the Northeast. Below are a few strategic steps that Republicans should take if they want to emerge from the wilderness re-energized and relevant in the Northeast.
1) Admit the Mistakes of the Bush Era: Republicans looking to reengage voters in the Northeast should speak frankly about the mistakes of the Bush era. They do not need to throw the former President under the bus, but they must show a clear understanding of why the combination of Bush and Tom Delay’s conservative congress alienated so many voters – especially the corrupt hyper-partisanship and unprecedented pork-barrel spending. This honesty will create enough daylight to allow voters to look fresh at a local Republican candidate. Admitting a problem is the first step toward recovery.
2) Regain Credibility on Fiscal Responsibility: There will be a voter backlash against the bailouts and the ballooning deficit – especially as the bad economy drags on and cities start declaring bankruptcy, along the lines of Vallejo, California. Every crisis contains an opportunity, but Republicans need to regain credibility on fiscal issues to benefit. Right now, there doesn’t seem to be a deficit hawk left in DC – Republicans should fill this gap. This is an issue of generational responsibility, at a time when baby boomers’ retirement is set to explode entitlement spending. Tax-cuts are a great contrast, especially on a state-level – and the GOP should sharpen its identity as the party of the entrepreneur. But tax cuts can’t continue to take the place of theology – applied on faith to every problem our nation faces. Republicans must do the math, bring us back to balanced budgets and become a force for fiscal discipline again.
3) Stay Strong on National Security: The morass in Iraq divided the American people on the wider war on terror, but the attacks of September 11th defined a generation and retain personal resonance, especially in the northeast. We are engaged in a non-optional global war against Jihadism, and while some Republicans feel like Churchill in the 1930s, this war is a reality from which we cannot retreat. This does not mean invoking 9/11 at every turn or reflexively seeking to criticize the Obama Administration’s national security team just to provide political contrast – this is bigger than politics – but it does mean sticking to principle. This war is far from over.
4) Embrace the Big Tent: Somehow Republicans have lost common ground – Reagan invoked the Big Tent constantly as a way of collecting libertarian conservatives, national security conservatives, economic conservatives and social conservatives under one banner. But the spirit of outreach and inclusiveness has been drummed out of the GOP – disagreement is seen as disloyalty, and the search for heretics has become a hobby. Libertarians are losing any logical reason to affiliate with the GOP, while centrist Republicans are seen as suspect almost by definition. When Senators like Olympia Snowe or John McCain win re-election with over 70% of the vote, they are considered sell-outs rather than successes. I’ve debated conservatives on TV who were rooting for Norm Coleman to lose, because they considered him insufficiently conservative. This road leads not just to political disaster, but party suicide. Republicans who have won statewide in the Northeast tend to be centrist on social issues, especially on a woman’s right to chose and gay civil rights. Republicans must welcome social moderates into the big tent of the GOP, focus on finding common ground and not treat them as second class citizens. Remember: In a place where everyone thinks alike, nobody is thinking very much.
5) Look like the Party of Lincoln: The Republican Party suffers from a pathetic lack of diversity on its political bench. It is out of step with America in the 21st Century. The candidacies of Michael Steele and Ken Blackwell for RNC Chair and the successes of Bobby Jindal and Joseph Cao in the Big Easy are a start – but only a start. There is a rational reason that minority candidates have felt unwelcome in the Party of Lincoln this side of 1964 [for my take on the back-story, click here]. The regional traditionalist appeals that have helped the GOP gain strength in other regions has contributed to its failure in the northeast, one of the most diverse areas in the United States. President Bush’s hopes to realign Hispanic voters went down with the immigration bill, especially the way opposition was painted as Nativist with assistance of some conservative commentators. The Republican Party needs to actively recruit candidates who look like the full diversity of America – articulating its alternative philosophy of how best to rise out of poverty and succeed in American society. It’s the reaching out that hasn’t been consistently done.
6) Run Against Congress, not Obama: One of the most critical questions facing Republicans in the coming days is whether they will pursue a simply obstructionist opposition to the Obama administration, or whether they will work to find the reasonable legislation and make it more responsible. The obstructionist school will fail at the ballot box in coming years, just as the “No-Bama” strategy failed in the campaign of 2008. President Obama will be the first pop-culture president in decades, so broadly popular and widely covered, he’ll grace publications from People to Rolling Stone, from Time to Newsweek. His largely centrist cabinet appointments have made the desperate “socialist” and “un-American” campaign ploys be seen as the attempts at fear-mongering that they were. Rather than defining the Republican Party simply and instinctively in opposition to the President, GOP candidates should run against the liberal congress. Independent and swing voters understand the virtue of checks and balances as well as James Madison – that’s why they so often split their ticket. The House leadership is considerably more liberal than the cabinet – even less popular than President Bush. Running against them, not Obama, is the answer to restoring balance, building contrast and reinforcing core Republican principles.
There are some people who are in denial about the depth of the GOP’s problems – they will counsel no change, just more of the same, and wait until Democrats over-reach to declare victory. This is an essentially passive strategy. It might be comfortable for some to simply play to a shrinking white, rural, traditionalist base – but it is insufficient to meeting the challenges facing our nation. The Republican Party must modernize, or risk becoming little more than a collection of common grievances. Rediscovering the founding values of individual liberty, fiscal responsibility and national unity – and applying them with renewed consistency – can lead to the Party of Lincoln’s resurgence, even in the Northeast.