How Much Will Iran Charge for Its American Hostages?

With N. Korea's release of the captive American journalists, now attention can turn to the three American hikers caught and detained in Iran. They may become pawns in the diplomatic standoff over Iran's nuclear program or in the internal power struggle between Ahmadinejad and his opponents.

The release of the two American journalists, Euna Lee and Laura Ling, from North Korean captivity is a fitting denouement to my June 25 article commemorating the Korean War's anniversary as it aptly demonstrates how far we have atrophied in our resolve to resist the thugs in Pyongyang and their psychotic whims.  To be sure, I am very happy and relieved for the journalists and their families as they were facing over a decade of hard labor as punishment handed down back in March by a kangaroo court for their so-called crimes. As it turns out now, Clinton’s visit was the culmination of weeks of quiet negotiations. And former President Clinton deserves credit for offering up his prestige as a term of the deal. Maybe the only concession was a photo-op for Kim with the former president that he could display to his people as evidence of the "dear leader's" import on the world stage.  I sure hope so.  But I simply cannot imagine the North Koreans would let the Americans off this cheap. Whatever the case, we now must turn our attention to the curiously under-reported story of three American hikers who were caught inside Iran near the Iraqi border and will be charged with spying.   Shane Bauer, Sarah Shourd and Joshua Fattal were charged this week with illegally entering Iran.  Bauer is a freelance journalist and photographer based in the Middle East who has reported from Iraq, Syria, Sudan's Darfur region and Yemen, according to his website. Tehran-based television news channel al-Alam quoted an Iraqi police officer as saying the trio were “working with the CIA.”   The State Department dismisses the allegations that they are spies, as do those personally close to them.     And so here we go again.   But this situation is more complicated than the Korean saga just concluded.  And the model used to effect the journalists’ release may not be applicable here.  Several forces are at play in this case. First off is the nature of the expeditions themselves.  With Ling and Lee, whether or not they crossed into North Korean territory deliberately, their purpose was clear: to investigate human trafficking on the border for Al Gore’s venture, Current TV.   The fact that they were in the employ of a former Vice President gave them special status and afforded them some protection.  It also made them more valuable bargaining chips. The hikers’ story is murkier.   As of this writing the narrative being offered by their friend  Shon Meckfessel, who skipped the fateful hike because he felt sick, is that they got lost while sight-seeing in Iraqi Kurdistan and wandered into Iranian territory. Alaeddin Boroujerdi, an Iranian lawmaker considered close to President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad , said that the case of the three detained Americans was under investigation by Iranian authorities, according to Iran's state-owned Press TV. "This case is currently on its natural course," Press TV quoted Mr. Boroujerdi as saying. A serious hurdle in unwinding this mess is that we have no diplomatic relations with Tehran so we are working through the Swiss Embassy there to learn more about the Americans' fate through its contacts with the Iranian Foreign Ministry.  But with North Korea, unseemly as it is, there is one uncontested (for now at least) “dear leader” with whom to deal (even if through interlocutors) and make terms.   With Iran, Washington and other Western nations remain under pressure not to recognize Ahmadinejad as the legitimate president of that country and opted not to offer congratulations upon his swearing in on Wednesday.   True to form, the always dependable White House Spokesman, Robert Gibbs was forced to retract his statement calling Ahmadinejad the elected leader of Iran saying:

Let me correct a little bit of what I said yesterday. I denoted that Mr. Ahmadinejad was the elected leader of Iran. I would say that's not for me to pass judgment on.  He's been inaugurated. That's a fact. Whether any election was fair, obviously the Iranian people still have questions about that, and we'll let them decide about that.

Adding to the tense broth into which these three Americans now find themselves immersed is that the United States has thrown its weight behind an effort to impose economic sanctions on Iranian oil unless the Islamic Republic agrees to suspend its uranium enrichment program, something Ahmadinejad has steadfastly refused to do. Yet, as time passes and Ahmadinejad remains, the US in the interest of realpolitik may be forced to acknowledge him as Iran’s legitimate representative if only to get closer to him so as to better understand exactly who it is that desires so badly to become a nuclear power and what his true intentions once that inevitability becomes reality. Ahmadinejad himself has offered a clue into his psyche, telling supporters last week how he plans to deal with unrest going forward, "Let me take the oath of office, and wait for the government to begin its work. Then, we'll seize [the dissidents] by their collars and stick their heads to the ceiling.”   Sweet man, huh?   Still, Obama needs to decide once and for all, do we recognize this guy or not?  An unenviable position to be sure.  And if I was in Tehran, having watched what just unfolded in Pyongyang, I would take a few Americans under the guise of false charges to force the administration’s hand. At some point there may be another photo-op moment in exchange for the Americans’ release.  If not with Bill Clinton this time, someone as note-worthy if that’s possible.  Like Kim whose sudden illness may deny his son the time needed for a smooth transition to the throne that was afforded to him by his father, Ahmadinejad is still in the midst of a power struggle in his country but for obviously different reasons.  What both men need now is a shot of legitimacy to help consolidate their hold on the reigns of control.  The trading of hostages for pow-wows and staged meetings is a model that works.  If anything was learned with Ling and Lee’s release it is that Americans are willing to go to extraordinary lengths, even at the expense of national honor and even national interest, to bring their people home safe.  In the West this is a virtue.  But I am afraid to those whose world-view is guided not by humanitarianism but by self-preservation at any cost, we may have unwittingly revealed a blue print for extracting concessions from the USA going forward… with little risk. Iran may indeed try to use the detained Americans as pawns in the diplomatic standoff between Tehran and Washington over Iran's nuclear program, a Western diplomat in Baghdad said.  This would raise the stakes considerably.  We must remember that the world is full of thugs who nonetheless are expert chessmen on the international board.  And they know that the USA can be maneuvered into sacrificing her queen to save a few pawns.  If Clinton's success was based on some quid-pro-quo yet to be revealed, then John Bolton said it best back in May: "It's time for the Obama administration to finally put down Kim Jong Il's script. If not, we better get ready for Iran -- and others -- to go nuclear." So even though we have a happy ending for two women wrongfully accused and their families whose anxiety must have been crippling these past few months, for the newest batch of American hostages, their nightmare has just begun.  One comforting thought comes from Joe Stork, deputy director of the Middle East division of Human Rights Watch who believes that the three Americans are likely to be treated with relative leniency. "I'd rather be an American in Iran right now than an Iranian in Iran," Stork said. "Obviously, the fact that the hikers are American automatically puts them into a politically sensitive arena. This affords them a little bit of protection."  Although, given the success of Kim’s kidnapping gambit, and the fact that on its heels three more Americans have been taken hostage by another openly hostile regime, I can only conclude that  I’d rather not be an American traveling to remote places.  I prefer not to be an unwilling pawn in a game we have shown ourselves more than willing to play… and lose. Checkmate.