How Many Senate Seats Will the Tea Party Cost?

The bill for the Republicans' Tea Party is about to arrive. Through 2009 and the first half of 2010, the media have buzzed with delighted horror over the supposedly unstoppable Tea Party movement. Now it's reality time.

My recent article for The Daily Telegraph looks at the price the GOP will pay for embracing the Tea Party movement.

The bill for the Republicans' Tea Party is about to arrive. Through 2009 and the first half of 2010, the media have buzzed with delighted horror over the supposedly unstoppable Tea Party movement in the United States. Now it's reality time.

Compare two sets of Senate races. The first is made up of contests in New Hampshire, Ohio and Illinois. The first two of these seats had been held by Republicans who did not seek re-election; the Illinois seat was formerly held by Barack Obama.

To contest these, Republicans nominated a range of mainstream candidates. In Illinois they have Mark Kirk – a socially moderate, fiscally conservative member of Congress, who represents the suburbs north of Chicago.

In Ohio, the Republican candidate is Rob Portman, a former US Trade Representative and White House budget chief. Kelly Ayotte is likely to win the Republican primary in New Hampshire. Currently the state's attorney general, she is a mainstream conservative: for lower taxes, against abortion. This is exactly the kind of candidate Republicans ought to nominate, and all three look set to win. Result: two holds and one net gain in the Senate.

But this good news for the mainstream GOP is balanced by the grim tally for Tea Party candidates. Consider another set of races. In Kentucky and Nevada, Tea Party activists won nominations for two of their own: Rand Paul and Sharron Angle. ...

In Rand Paul and Sharron Angle's cases, the Tea Party has tipped sure Republican wins into excruciatingly near things.

Click here to read the rest.