How Hispanic Voters Helped Keep Texas Red

Latino voters were key in helping the Dems win important races out West. But in Texas, they helped seal Rick Perry's victory and the GOP's hold on the state.

While election night was a rough one for Democrats in Texas, one of the hopes that Texas Democrats have had is that the Hispanic vote will eventually move the state in a pro-Democratic direction.  Latino voters helped Harry Reid's re-election campaign in Nevada and supported Democratic candidates elsewhere in an otherwise difficult year.  The general thought has been that once Latino voters vote in numbers similar to their percentage of the general population in Texas (a percentage that is growing every year), the Democratic Party will be able to return to power in short order.

That may not be the case.  According to a recent Houston Chronicle article, 39% of Hispanic voters voted for Rick Perry's re-election as Governor of Texas.  While that means that most Hispanics supported the Democratic nominee, it also means that the GOP captured about 4 out of 10 Hispanic voters in Texas.  This is not good news for Democrats.  Simple arithmetic can tell you that the GOP does not need to win most Hispanics over to maintain a working electoral majority in Texas, all they have to do is maintain around 40% of the Latino vote in their favor, coupled with stronger majorities among other ethnic groups.  In states like California, such pro-Republican percentages would be considered unlikely.  In Texas, this last election showed such percentages are not impossible for Republicans to reach for.

There are many reasons why Latinos in Texas have not moved as sharply against the GOP as they have elsewhere, but one big reason in this election was because Rick Perry has opposed Arizona-style immigration legislation, a position that he has reiterated.  He may not be able to hold back those in the Texas Legislature who want to enact such legislation from making some headlines, but as anyone who has observed the Texas Legislature can tell you, a lot of bad things can happen to legislation opposed by the Governor's office.

The GOP has an opportunity in Texas that it doesn't have in other states.  While Hispanics in Texas are generally pro-Democratic, they aren't as overwhelmingly so as elsewhere.  If the Republican Party in Texas can keep its focus on bread-and-butter issues that can bring Hispanics into the GOP camp (or at least around 40% of them), they can maintain their current position as the majority party in Texas.  If they fail to do so, and go for the sort of exclusionary rhetoric and policies that have alienated Latinos from the GOP elsewhere in the country, they face a demographic winter in coming election cycles.  The next couple of years will be key for determining how this will all play out.  Texas is the backbone of the GOP's electoral college coalition, and control of this state is pivotal for the general electoral fortunes of both political parties.  Neither party can afford to make assumptions about where the Latino vote will go in Texas, and where that vote goes can have huge ramifications nationally, independent of where the Latino vote goes in other states.