Herman Cain's Advantage

My predictions about the Florida Straw poll were wrong: I wouldn't have expected Herman Cain to finish in the top three much less win overall. I saw a fair number of Cain buttons around CPAC but basically ignored him assuming that he had already peaked. Cain's ability to win the straw poll does show that he's a good organizer and may well go further in the race than some expect.

All that said, Cain had what may be an unfair advantage. he delivered the keynote address--the only significant speech--at CPAC's VIP Ronald Reagan Reception (a huge ballroom event with at least 1,000 people) the night before the straw poll opened. It was a good speech--even great at times--and made Cain seem likable and principled to just about everyone in the room. I actually took Cain a lot more seriously myself after listening to it. Given that there was enormous overlap between the CPAC and Presidency 5 straw poll audiences, it gave lots of undecided delegates another chance to see him. And they liked what he saw.

Furthermore, unlike Perry--who probably spent at least $50,000 on the ballroom and fancy breakfast buffet I saw laid out in the Rosen Hotel Saturday Morning--Cain's campaign didn't pay a dime for it. (In fact, CPAC attendees paid to listen to Cain.)