Healthcare Healthcare Healthcare

A fascinating article in Manhattan Institute's City Journal reports an amazing statistic: in 2006, New York City was home to 807,750 self-employed workers - about one out of every five non-governmental jobs.

These freelancers might have been expected to lean Republican, because of the heavy burden of taxes. (Self-employed workers have to absorb the shock of paying the full 15.2% of payroll tax directly to the government.) That may be ceasing to be true, as self-purchased health insurance becomes ever less affordable.

Historically, the self-employed have pulled the lever for Republicans, concerned about such standard business-owner worries as strict regulations and high taxes. But these days, fewer and fewer middle-income Americans are paying taxes; the Tax Foundation reports that households paying no federal income tax rose from 21 percent in 1990 to 33 percent now, and would rise to 44 percent under Obama’s proposed plan. As some of the self-employed leave the tax rolls, they will lose one reason to vote Republican. Many will also have a reason to vote Democrat: health insurance. “Several of my friends, once die-hard Republicans, have begun to lean left since working for themselves or for a small company,” says Noe Pagán. “There’s nothing like a lack of health insurance to change your point of view.”

It seems paradoxical that a rise in self-employment might create a constituency for bigger government, but the modern economy is shaking up many old alliances. When a demographic is diverse enough to contain both Bill Gates and a Brooklyn mom, both a Dallas trucker and a top Manhattan publicist, allegiances will be a bit muddled. What is clear is that as the Republican Party struggles to fight its way out of the political wilderness, it can’t take today’s entrepreneurs for granted.