Hayworth Poised to Challenge McCain
After months of speculation, former Arizona GOP congressman J.D. Hayworth appears poised to challenge John McCain for the GOP Senate nomination in Arizona.
Last Friday, Hayworth ended his popular Arizona talk radio show and hinted at his near future. Signing off, the host said, “It has been a joy to spend weekday afternoons on KFYI. Now, another chapter begins. The call to public service remains, and again it may very well lead to pursuit of public office.” He also told the Associated Press on Friday that, “We're moving forward to challenge John McCain.”
If Hayworth does run, he would be competing for public office for the first time since losing his Congressional seat in 2006, ending 11 years in office. The Arizona Republican was among 22 incumbent Republicans that lost in 2006. His loss may have, in part, been aided by his connections to corrupt lobbyist Jack Abramoff.
Hayworth’s likely run comes after months of declining support. A Rasmussen poll conducted last Wednesday and released last Friday shows Senator McCain with 53 percent support and Hayworth with just 31 percent, a 22-point difference. Hayworth’s “favorability rating” has slipped 9 points recently.
(Though, in an interview with the Arizona Republic, a possible Hayworth advisor cites a mysterious internal poll that “clearly shows J.D. can win.”)
In the fall, however, Hayworth’s support was strong and may see a resurgence after an official announcement. A poll conducted in December, indicated a virtual tie between the two Republicans and a September poll demonstrated that a staggering 61% of Arizonan Republicans disapproved of McCain’s political choices.
A 2010 Hayworth-McCain battle would, in many respects, fit into a larger political trend in which a conservative GOP candidate like Florida’s Marco Rubio challenges an established, moderate candidate, like Florida Governor Charlie Crist (a McCain supporter).
Hayworth, like Rubio and other conservative insurgents across the nation, has positioned himself as a true conservative Republican opposing an impure moderate or liberal Republican. Unlike most conservative candidates, however, Hayworth will most likely make illegal immigration central to his campaign, perhaps even above economic issues.
Indeed, immigration is a central issue in Arizona politics. The border state is home to a steady flow of illegal immigration from Mexico and, as a result, strong support for increased border enforcement. Both Sheriff Joe Arpaio (“the toughest Sheriff in America”) and the Minuteman Militia (citizens that patrol the US-Mexico border area) are local to Arizona. In a 2009 poll, Arizonans considered immigration reform a more pressing issue than healthcare reform.
McCain’s vocal support for the failed 2007 comprehensive immigration reform (which, among other things, called for the legalization of illegal immigrants living in America) enraged many Grand Canyon State conservatives who support strict enforcement of border laws.
Hayworth admits, "No, I would never run for office, quote, out of spite, but I do have a profound disagreement with Senator John McCain over the concept of amnesty, whether he wants to call it comprehensive immigration reform or a pathway for guest workers to remain," said Mr. Hayworth.
A week ago, as McCain spoke at the Arizona Republican Party’s recent convention, crowd members mockingly shouted, ““What about amnesty?” and “JD!”
McCain also faces a challenge from the right from Chris Simcox, a founder of the Minuteman Militia. Hayworth’s candidacy for Senate may well be the death nail for the border hawk’s campaign.
McCain’s strained relationship with Arizona grassroots conservatives like Wilcox is nothing new. Going back as early as 2001, conservatives launched a recall on the Senator, who they deemed too liberal and too confrontational with the newly elected President Bush. Another conservative-led recall effort made headlines in 2007 as Senator McCain ran again for President.
But there is some hope for McCain in gaining some more traction with Arizona Republicans: Sarah Palin has promised to campaign in Arizona on her old running mate’s behalf.
Will she live up to this promise with Hayworth in the race? Palin’s base of support surely shares more in common with Hayworth. This may create some tension at McCain-Palin events if they take place at all. But, by most indications, Palin’s personal debt to McCain will likely win out over any potential Hayworth awkwardness.