Harper Wins Big

Everyone -- well, almost everyone -- is surprised at the results of the general election; but what do they mean for Canada?

Mark me down as an optimist.

With the first majority government for the Conservatives since Brian Mulroney in 1988, and the first time in memory that the Tories have won three elections in a row, Stephen Harper is clearly in the catbird seat.

It’s likely he and his party will continue running the country the same way they’ve run it during the past five years: efficiently, somewhat impatiently, with clear heads and eyes forward.

Canada should continue being the envy of the world in this time of economic recovery from the 2008 recession. Harper and the stability of our banking system can take a bow.

That’s not the big news, however.

It should have been clear from the moment Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff forced an election, that there was no logical reason why Canadians should reject the Tories. And they didn’t.

Ignatieff is toast. I’m one of those who suspect he called the election so he could leave politics gracefully. As a political leader he’s been a dud. Smart guy, for whom politics is the wrong business.

No one can remember when the Liberals won only 35 seats, because it’s never happened before. That’s what the NDP usually gets.

And we’ve seen the last of Bloc leader Gilles Duceppe, who led his “Sovereignist” party from 49 to three seats. With luck, separatism is passé in Quebec -- but don’t count on it.

The biggest concern for many is the mercurial rise of the NDP – 102 seats. To those who fear “socialists” (even those who call themselves “democratic socialists”) being in a position to someday form the government – relax. It ain’t going to happen.

The NDP will be back to normal (i.e. 35 - 40 seats) after the next general election, when the Liberals take a hard look at themselves and rebuild. The “surge” of the NDP is primarily because their leader, Jack Layton, was more popular than his party. By the next election, the country will have caught on to him.

With other political leaders, their parties are more popular than their leaders, and that includes Stephen Harper, who is not as cuddly as he looks. But he’s a damn good manager, and a fine PM.

While attention is understandably directed at the NDP, it’s the Tories that should excite the country. They cracked the big municipal centers of Toronto, Vancouver and Montreal – now a truly national party.

And the Tories are replete with competent (comparatively-speaking) MPs, while the Liberals are stripped of those who were competent.

The NDP have little to recommend them as a government in waiting – lots of rookies, and a leader who talks rubbish like opening the Constitution, interfering with bank interest rates and bribing young and old with their own money.

This election reduced the Liberals to being a regional party, rather than a national party. That will change, but who will lead?

Will Bob Rae become interim leader, promising to do for Canada what he did for Ontario when he was NDP premier of the province?

Some (including himself) see Justin Trudeau as a future leader. Ugh! A young man whose main political credential is his name.

That’s for the future. Right now, Canada is on course, has a solid helmsman who doesn’t panic and knows what he’s doing. Lucky country!

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