GOP's 2012 Budget: Dead on Arrival?

Apparently old-fashioned snail mail has made a comeback in the United States Senate.  Two sets of letters roiled the fiscal policy process last week, as both the Continuing Resolution for FY11 and the debt ceiling increase loomed closer.

Twenty-three Republican senators wrote a letter vowing never to support a debt ceiling increase without presidential leadership on cutting entitlement spending, such as government pensions, Medicare, Medicaid, and farm programs. Then sixty-four senators wrote the president, implying that if he would devise a comprehensive fiscal package, including entitlement program changes, they would support him.

Meanwhile, anti-deficit stalwart, House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan, pledges to start markup of the Fiscal Year 2012 budget on April 4.  The Ryan plan reportedly contains a comprehensive entitlement reform regime.  If Ryan’s plan can pass committee it will be on a party line vote.  And, if it gets to the House floor, again it will likely take almost unanimous GOP support to pass.

It remains unlikely that such a plan can pass the Senate at this point.  In the Senate, emphasis has been on a goal-oriented process reform, followed by an attempt to pass a budget that enforces the debt or deficit goals Congress devises.

Congressional activity has accomplished one thing, if nothing else—Republicans have succeeded in lowering their approval ratings dramatically the last 90 days.  Several polls reveal that Americans view both the GOP and Obama about the same—only 3 in 10 have a favorable view.  If and when the Ryan plan receives support from the Republican caucus in the House, those numbers may decline.

Americans seem to be saying: “Japan is fighting destruction and radiation;  Libyans are fighting and dying against Qaddafi; 8 million Americans can’t find jobs;  housing prices remain low;  and Congress can’t even pass a budget for a year already half gone.  Come on, man!”

If, and it seems more probable than not, the seventh iteration of a CR for FY11 leads to real deadlock, and a short-term shutdown of much of the federal government on March 28, then Congress will have confirmed what too many Americans feared—last November’s elections didn’t really change much at all.

Even more dangerous than a woman scorned is an electorate misled.  As the poet wrote, “April is the cruelest month.”  April looms.

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