Daniels: Wonks Love Him, Grassroots Don't
Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels may be the thinking man's conservative, but he polls abysmally among those who actually pick the GOP nominee: the grassroots.
Among conservatives who value good public policy, no figure may be more adored than Governor Mitch Daniels of Indiana. He is the thinking man’s conservative, a man who can successfully lease a toll road and keep taxes low to promote economic growth. Even liberals admit that he has done an excellent job in Indiana. In light of this track record, how can he not be considered a prime candidate to be the GOP’s presidential candidate in 2012? The problem is that he polls absolutely abysmally among the people who actually matter in making a candidate win a GOP primary: conservative activists.
David Brooks in the New York Times on September 30th 2010 described Daniels as: “the governor of Indiana who I think is most likely to win the GOP presidential nomination in 2012.”
Reihan Salam has argued in Newsweek that Daniels would be perfect to run against Obama: “Though it is far too early to know what the world will look like in 2012… I can’t help but think that a common-sense conservative like Daniels would be the perfect match for Obama.” This may be true, but polls suggest that Daniels would not even make it to that stage.
In one of ConservativeHome USA’s first polls, surveying more than a thousand conservative activists who have worked on Republican campaigns, Mitch Daniels came dead last in two polls: one asking who was their favorite candidate to be president (Palin won with 23% of the vote) and asking who they thought was actually likely to win (Romney won with 35%). Daniels got 3% and 2% in each poll respectively:
Which 2012 presidential contender is your favorite:
23% - Sarah Palin
21% - Newt Gingrich
18% - Mitt Romney
13% - Mike Huckabee
7% - Jeb Bush
7% - Tim Pawlenty
5% - Mike Pence
4% - John Thune
3% - Mitch Daniels
Which 2012 presidential contender is the most likely to win the nomination:
35% - Mitt Romney
17% - Sarah Palin
15% - Newt Gingrich
12% - Mike Huckabee
9% - Tim Pawlenty
4% - Jeb Bush
3% - John Thune
2% - Mitch Daniels
Daniels is not the only favored candidate of conservative elites who polls poorly. Senator John Thune has also gotten his fair share of praise. David Brooks praised Thune for being “unfailingly genial, modest and nice” and Fred Barnes devoted 7,659 words in The Weekly Standard in a feature piece on the Senator. Barnes insisted that despite having voted for the heresy of TARP, that John Thune could still be the nominee:
Thune’s [TARP] vote is a minor obstacle, not an insurmountable one. Much as they may dislike TARP, primary voters seem unlikely to use the vote as some kind of fiscal litmus test. As McConnell argues, many good conservatives voted for TARP.
The same poll shows that Thune was also the penultimate candidate in both polls. (4% as a favorite candidate, and 3% as likely to win the nomination.)
Similarly bad numbers do not seem to plague candidates who have proactive media presences, such as Palin, Gingrich, Romney, or Huckabee. In contrast, both Jeb Bush and Tim Pawlenty, both considered to be highly competent, fail to break the 10% mark in both polls.
While it is good news that there are Republicans who can demonstrate what effective conservative leadership can look like, it is important to remember that the current GOP grassroots probably judge their candidates by a different standard. In addition, even Daniels remains divisive among conservatives because of his support for a “truce” on social issues, and his interest in exploring a value-added tax. At the moment, Daniels and other candidates like him are qualified, but largely unknown.
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