GOP Wins in 2010 Could Lead to Big Losses in 2012
Looking at last week’s election results, I noticed that black turnout in Virginia was 20% down since 2008 and youth turnout was 50% down. While this fact does not account for McDonnell’s win, it does account for some portion of his huge margin of victory. Most importantly, it means that conservative declarations that the Obama era is over are premature: the voters have not turned away from Obama (yet) – rather a lot of his voters simply did not show up. If the Republican luck continues, they also won’t show up at the midterm election next year, since once again Obama will not be on the ballot. But in 2012 he will! So Republicans who capture dozens of seats from Democrats next year (as we all hope) will have to defend them after just one term in a much less favorable environment, which will furthermore be compounded by redistricting in 2011 (and in most states that process will not be particularly Republican-friendly). We need to think very carefully about the wisdom of nominating the most conservative candidate available in each and every district (at least if we want a coherent conservative strategy for a longer period than just one congressional term). Many conservatives now say that Doug Hoffman would have won if he had been the official Republican candidate and suggest that he runs again next year. But “Could Hoffman have won in 2009?” is the wrong question. The right question is “Could Hoffman have won in 2008 (when Obama carried NY-23 by a healthy margin)?” By all means, we should nominate conservatives in truly safe Republican districts (and there are plenty of those) and perhaps in cases when the conservative in question just happens to be very popular in the district for whatever reason. But in swing districts it would be prudent to remember the “center” part of the “center-right coalition”. Also, incumbents running for reelection should be virtually untouchable – few offenses short of actually voting for Pelosi for Speaker can justify a primary challenge. But I’m very afraid that the Club for Growth and its allies have other ideas.
In fact, I am very concerned about a relative likely doomsday scenario for conservatism which goes along the following lines. Encouraged by victories in VA and NJ and a surprisingly strong performance by a third-party conservative challenger in NY-23, conservatives rise up to assert control of the GOP and nominate dozens upon dozens of conservative candidates not only for seats held by Democrats but also for many Republican seats previously held by more moderate politicians (who are either defeated in the primaries or are retiring – in some cases because of increasing hostility toward them on the conservatives’ part). The economy recovers slowly, the rate unemployment is still very high in late 2010,healthcare and energy legislation are full of compromises that leave nobody happy, Guantanamo is still open, “don’t ask, don’t tell” is still in force, nobody is under investigation for waterboarding, the troops are still in Iraq and Afghanistan, etc. etc. etc. The Democratic base's turnout is very low. Independents, inasmuch as they bother to show up at all, do so mostly to register their unhappiness with the economy. The Republican base is energized and turns out in force. Despite a number of disappointing narrow losses by conservative candidates and very mixed results in the Senate, the GOP picks dozens of seats in the House (a lot of them by a razor margin). While the Democrats are actually still in charge of everything, triumphant conservatives convince each other that the era of Obama (and Pelosi) is truly over and that unabashed uncompromising conservatism is just the ticket to building a permanent majority. The next presidential campaign starts the day after the midterm election and a lot of wheeling and dealing, political alignment, talent hiring by campaigns etc. happen in early 2011, while it is still very difficult to judge the future mood of the country in late 2012. As 2011 progresses, the economy gradually picks up (in part because more and more stimulus money is finally being spent), the unemployment rate starts declining, but the leading GOP candidates are oblivious as they are too absorbed in debating who’s the most conservative of all (their TV debates often resemble Monty Python’s " Four Yorkshiremen"). In the meantime, quite a few Republican veterans in Congress realize where it is all headed and decide to quit (either to retire or to pursue other opportunities) rather than spend years in a marginalized minority or even suffer an ignominious defeat. More conservative (on average) candidates are nominated as prospective replacements. In January 2012, the party quickly picks a presidential candidate – a true conservative, of course. A matching running mate is picked a bit later. Conservatives have great hopes for their dream ticket (Rush Limbaugh – Ann Coulter 2012 or perhaps their proxies among the professional politicians).
Meanwhile, the economy starts roaring (like it did just in time for Reagan in ’84) and hundreds of thousands of new jobs are created every month. A lot of people feel good about “insuring the uninsured”, “saving the planet” and other new programs, while the negative effects of higher taxes, huge new debt, Obamacare, cap-and-trade and other statist policies do not yet start to get felt (in fact most of the new policies are not even fully implemented yet). All that alone would virtually guarantee Obama’s reelection. But a lot of people also don’t want the first black president to be considered a failure by history and want him reelected for this reason alone, and Obama yet again generates a lot of enthusiasm among many infrequent voters. All that would almost guarantee a landslide (absent a very skillful campaign by a carefully selected opposition ticket). But the abrasive and unpopular Republican ticket creates an opening for a mega landslide, comparable to those of Reagan and LBJ. Obama uses his mandate and supermajorities in Congress not only to pass new sweeping legislation, but also to revisit insufficiently liberal legislation from his first term (e.g. to replace “public option” with “public mandate”). The GOP establishment overreacts both in recriminations against conservatives and in swinging the party much further to the left than is really necessary. Conservatives pat themselves on the back for standing up for their eternal immutable principles. Then, true to form, they quietly redefine those principles in such a way that just about anybody to the right of the previous Democratic president (JFK back in the 60’s, Bill Clinton now) qualifies as a conservative.
Do we really have to go through all this?