GOP Set for Redistricting Advantage
The New York Times reports:
The midterm elections are being closely watched for the answer to a high-stakes question: Will Republicans have a majority in Congress for the next two years? But it is the outcome of a lower-profile battle over state legislatures that could strengthen the Republican party for a decade.
Republicans are within reach of gaining control of eight or more chambers in statehouses around the country this fall, according to interviews with Republicans, Democrats and independent political analysts. That would give Republicans the power to draw more Congressional districts in their favor, since the expected gains come just as many legislatures will play a major role in the once-a-decade process of redrawing the boundaries of those districts.
Republicans said they expected to win control of House chambers in Indiana, Ohio and Pennsylvania, and the State Senate in Wisconsin, and saw at least a dozen other states where they have a reasonable chance of winning control of legislative chambers. Democrats acknowledge that they will be fighting to preserve their slim majorities in at least 10 chambers — including State Senates in Nevada, New Hampshire and New York — but say that they see opportunities to gain control of chambers in four other states.
Redistricting, it has often been said, turns the traditional definition of democracy on its head: rather than allowing voters to choose their leaders, it allows leaders to choose their voters.
The new districts are supposed to reflect the population shifts measured by the census. In practice, though, officials in both parties often try to gerrymander districts to help themselves and their parties win more elections.
So both parties are working frantically to eke out victories in state legislatures, pouring resources into races that are traditionally measured by the number of doors knocked on, not the number of ads broadcast.
For Democrats, the prospect of legislative losses could not come at a worse time. Gains in the past decade have left them in control of both chambers of the legislature in 27 states, while Republicans control both chambers in only 14 states; eight states have divided legislatures. (One, Nebraska, has a unicameral legislature and nonpartisan elections.) Republicans are predicting that they will gain at least 10 chambers this fall, which they say would give them the power to redraw up to 25 Congressional districts.
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