GOP Pulls Ahead in Race for Byrd's Senate Seat
The West Virginia Senate seat is looking to be winnable for Republicans, despite the popularity of the Democratic nominee, Governor Joe Manchin.
In a conference call with bloggers earlier this week, Republican senatorial nominee and businessman John Raese touted a Public Policy Polling poll that showed him up on Governor Manchin, 46%-43% - a lead within the margin of error. Just two months ago, Manchin was leading this race by sixteen points.
“[West Virginia] voted for Bush the last two times through, and as a continuing situation has always supported Bob Byrd and Jay Rockefeller, but when you talk the national issues today, that flavor has changed,” said John Raese.
That Raese is competitive against Gov. Joe Manchin is especially notable in that the West Virginia governor has a 59/32 approval/disapproval rating – the second most popular governor in the nation. Even 42% of Republicans approve of the work that he’s doing, while only 44% of Republicans disapprove.
But as much as West Virginians like Gov. Manchin, they are increasingly going for Raese – mostly because of intense dissatisfaction with national Democrats. 64% of voters statewide disapprove of President Obama, with disapproval ratings from independents at a whopping 73%.
“Obamacare and certainty, Obama[‘s] popularity in West Virginia is approaching twenty percent,” Raese told bloggers on the conference call. “We’re very tuned into the fact that the association with Manchin going to Washington and being a rubber stamp for Barack Obama is going to be one of the key elements [in our strategy].”
Still, Raese will have to deal with a substantial fundraising disadvantage. As of the most recent FEC filings in August, Gov. Manchin had raised over $400k, while Raese had only managed to raise about $160k. Raese told FrumForum that he had since raised his total fundraising to $450k – something that can be confirmed at the next FEC filing.
The goal, Raese told FrumForum, was not necessarily to outraise Manchin, but to raise enough. “One of the scenarios of West Virginia versus a California or a Florida or a New York, is that when you buy television or radio, it doesn’t have the commanding prices that these big major market networks do… so to get [my] message across, and create win-ability… I certainly have enough funding to do that.”
Raese, a former West Virginia GOP chairman who has run for Senate twice and Governor once in the past, said that his past campaigns have been an asset to him. “If they not know you, they won’t vote for you,” said Raese, citing Abraham Lincoln’s poor electoral record.
“I’m not afraid to lose.”
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