GOP Moderates Have Best Shot at White House

While the GOP has recently been dominated by its conservative base, Public Policy Polling's first look at the 2012 Republican field reveals a party where moderates may be poised to select the eventual nominee.

Public Policy Polling's first look at the 2012 Republican field shows that at this point, there is no clear Republican frontrunner to face off against President Obama at this point in the game. Each of the leading candidates was within the margin of error of another. Romney heads up the field at 28%. Mike Huckabee took 24% and Sarah Palin took 23%. Ron Paul won 11% (seriously), while 9% come in undecided and 6% left wanting another candidate entirely.

PPP points out several interesting aspects of the poll. First, in a party that has recently been dominated by the “base,” moderates seem poised to be the ultimate decider of the nominee. Conservatives prefer Mike Huckabee and Sarah Palin (Huckabee 28%, Sarah Palin 27%) over Mitt Romney (25% among hard core conservatives. That said, Romney dominates the moderate bracket, leading Palin and Huckabee by a margin of 35% to Palin's 17% and Huckabee's 17%. It is this advantage that puts Mitt on top overall.

The poll also highlights an important divide among primary voters between the pragmatists and the (for lack of a better term) ideologues. While Palin's favorables are (frighteningly) the highest among self identified Republicans (PPP puts the number at 69%) but that favorability rating does not translate to votes, since only 32% of those with a positive opinion of the former Alaska governor say they would vote for her. The reason for this is almost certainly the fact that Republican voters have serious doubts about her chances of election. PPP finds that 48% of likely Republican primary voters are most concerned with nominating someone who can knock off the president, and among those voters, PPP finds that Palin lags behind her opponents significantly (Romney gets 32% of these votes, Huckabee takes 27%, Palin takes a meager 15%).

In stark contrast to the pragmatists, Palin dominates among the 42% of likely primary voters that believe the most important thing is nominating a candidate that is conservative on all of the issues. Palin leads all candidates among these voters, taking 36% of their votes compared to 24% for both Romney and the Huckster.

Thus the takeaway from the PPP polls: the Republican party is (shocker) divided across the board. Likely Republican primary voters neither agree on which candidate they want to nominate in 2010 or even about what kind of candidate the GOP should run. The GOP has a long way to go before its ready to mount a serious challenge against a talented incumbent.