GOP Fights to Close West Coast Gender Gap
The plot continues to thicken in statewide races on the West Coast. Meg Whitman, given up for lost earlier this week, has suddenly begun to close in on Brown in the latest Rasmussen survey. Carly Fiorina is keeping it close against Barbara Boxer. Dino Rossi is headed for a photo-finish with Patty Murray while Sharron Angle has all but put an end to Harry Reid’s tenure in the U.S. Senate. What gives with these races?
Women and independent voters continue to play outsized roles in determining the outcomes of these races. Several weeks ago, here’s what the splits looked like in these races among the key demographics:
All four of the Republican candidates were facing similar challenges with support among women voters hovering in the low 40s -- the very edge of the competitive range. A larger gender gap for any of these Republicans would have made for a much more difficult challenge. Earlier this month, Angle and Rossi, and to a lesser extent Fiorina, were keeping it real by virtue of their significant strength among independent voters.
Since early October, the California races have diverged in a significant way from those in Nevada and Washington State. Here’s the updated chart for the same demographic groups drawn from the most recent Rasmussen polls in all four races:
Angle has surged across the board drawing to near parity with Reid among women and taken a strong lead among independents. It is interesting that her favorables among both groups lag her vote percentage indicating some “nose-holding” going on; Angle is disliked but Reid is disliked even more. Rossi has seen similar improvement among women gaining 5 points over the course of the month while his numbers among independents have declined slightly but remain very robust at near 60 percent. Murray has lost the independents and failed to close the deal with women. If this trend holds over the weekend, it is difficult to see how Murray gets re-elected.
Moving to the California races, chances for both Whitman and Fiorina appeared to be diminishing this week with their opponents seeming to consolidate narrow leads. Then, this morning’s Rasmussen poll put Whitman within four points. The crosstabs tell the story: both of these contests are coming down to a simple question of women vs. independent voters and their relative strength in off-year electorates. Both Fiorina and Whitman have seen small to moderate declines among women voters and are close to the point of no return. On the other hand, both candidates are surging among independents (Fiorina up 11 and Whitman up 16). If the Democratic base turns out, Boxer and Jerry Brown win. Most polling, however, indicates a much higher level of interest in the election among independent voters than among core Democrats. If independent voters significantly outpace Democratic women (a plausible scenario) these races could be upsets in the making.
