Good News for Conservatives?
A recent Gallup poll finds that 39% of Americans describe themselves as having become more conservative in recent years. But look closer at the polls, and you do not see that the country as a whole is moving right in any meaningful sense.
In May, the Gallup poll recorded a big swing in the percentage of Americans describing themselves as “prolife.” Now in July, Gallup finds that 39% of Americans describe themselves as having become more conservative in recent years, as compared to only 18% who say they have become more liberal.
Good news for conservatives? Almost every conservative commentator says so. But not so fast.
Look closer at the polls, and you do not see that the country as a whole is moving right in any meaningful sense. On taxes for example Americans are less likely to describe themselves as overtaxed in 2009 than in 2004. More Americans express discontent with the healthcare status quo than five years ago. The country continues to evolve toward greater tolerance of homosexuality, and it continues to strongly favor stem-cell research.
So what has changed? What has changed is that the 40% of Americans who regard themselves as conservative are shifting to more extreme forms of conservatism.
Look at the big abortion poll. A year ago, 40% said that abortion should be illegal in most circumstances, while only 17% said that it should be illegal in all circumstances. In May 2009, 37% said abortion should be mostly illegal, while 23% said it should be entirely illegal. The prolife cause as a whole gained only 3 points, ie, within the margin of error.
But the most extreme form of the prolife cause gained 6 points.
Likewise, ideologically, the biggest driver of the “more conservative” number has been the shift amongst conservatives themselves. 58% of conservatives now say they have become “more conservative” in recent years.
Meanwhile 48% of moderates and 43% of liberals say their views have not changed much.
We are not, in other words, viewing a big national shift from the left to the right. Rather we are viewing a shift among those who already described themselves as conservatives toward an acceptance of more extreme forms of conservatism.
Oddly, this self-description does not seem to line up with big changes in actual positions on the issues. On the economy in particular Americans seem open to a new era of government activism on healthcare. (Discontent with the healthcare status quo has risen 7 points over the past year.) Fewer describe the tax burden as excessive. On the other hand, Americans do seem to have returned to traditionally hawkish views on defense and national security.
What the Gallup poll seems to have discerned is not a change of substance, but a change in style. Over barely six months of the Obama presidency, the right has worked itself into a furious state of mind, not so much over any one issue in particular, but over the very existence of the Obama administration. Then we confuse our own mood of extremism with a more general swing to conservatism by moderates and liberals. That’s a big misjudgment – and a misjudgment that may lead to some very serious strategic mistakes in the months ahead.