Gallup: 2012 GOP Race Wide Open
The Gallup Poll reports:
The wide-open battle for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination -- with nearly a three-way tie among Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin, and Mitt Romney -- is quite different from the typical pattern observed in past Republican nomination contests. In Gallup polling since 1952, Republican Party nomination races always featured a clear front-runner at this stage of the campaign, and in almost all cases, that front-runner ultimately won the nomination.
Between 1952 and 2008, there were nine open races for the Republican presidential nomination -- that is, years when a sitting Republican president was not seeking re-election. Additionally, in 1976, incumbent President Gerald Ford faced a strong challenge from Ronald Reagan. Thus, since 1952, the Republicans have had 10 competitive races for the presidential nomination.
Across these 10 elections, 2008 is the only year in which the eventual nominee, John McCain, achieved front-runner status relatively late in the campaign cycle. In the other nine, the nominee rose to the top of the pack in the year prior to the election, and in eight of those elections, the nominee was the front-runner by March. ...
Winning a presidential nomination is never assured, and every eventual nominee encounters competition and threats of varying degrees on his or her way to the convention. However, looking retrospectively at the 10 open or competitive Republican races since 1952, early Republican front-runners have had very good odds, prevailing in 8 of these. Additionally, although Goldwater did not lead the earliest Gallup Republican preference polls in 1963, he was leading by the spring of that year and thus comes close to fitting the pattern. The only nominee to truly break the mold was McCain, running a distant second to Giuliani throughout 2007. However, by virtue of his strong second-place ranking by the time Giuliani dropped out of the race in late January, McCain was able to capitalize on Giuliani's departure (and endorsement), springing ahead of his remaining rivals.
History thus provides no guidelines for how today's highly fragmented Republican race might play out, or for when a strong front-runner is likely to emerge, or who it will be. If the race remains close throughout 2011, it may also create unfamiliar political and fundraising dynamics for the national party. As of today, Huckabee is supported by 18% of Republicans and Republican leaners, while Palin and Romney are each favored by 16%. However, it is quite possible one of the three, or perhaps a different candidate, will break out from the pack before too long, particularly given that some of these candidates may decide not to run. And as the field is clarified, certain candidates may benefit more than others.
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