Funders And Fundies

With the next Texas gubernatorial election about twenty months away, potential candidates are scrambling across the State to organize and fund-raise in preparation for the Spring 2010 primaries. The Republican side promises to present a Texas-sized donnybrook, with several plausible challengers set to enter the fray against current third-term Governor Rick Perry. There has not been a primary fight on the Republican side for the State's top seat since 1994, but a battle royale for the Republican bid will soon be joined and it could get bloody. While there certainly will be a contentious struggle on the Democratic side - with stalwart and well-supported candidates such as State Senator Kirk Watson striding into play - the Republican contest will be the one garnering national attention, with, in all likelihood, Perry punching it out against United States Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison for the right to be on the November 2010 ballot.

The Champ

Rick Perry has a long and estimable career in public service and is now Texas' longest-serving Governor. He began by winning election to the State House in 1984, representing Haskell as a conservative Democrat. After switching to the Republican Party in 1989, Perry won the Ag Commissioner seat, and then, in 1998, was elected to succeed Texas icon -- and the last notable state-wide Democrat officeholder -- Bob Bullock as Lieutenant Governor. In that election year, Texas Republicans secured every state-wide office, a grip the GOP has maintained ever since. Following Governor George W. Bush's move to Washington, Perry inherited the State's top job and has since won reelection twice. Full disclosure - Governor Perry is a graduate of Texas A&M University, where I now attend.

Despite an impressive record, Rick Perry has, in recent years, increasingly received criticism from fellow Republicans in Austin and elsewhere. For example, in early 2007, he issued a controversial executive order requiring all Texas girls be vaccinated with Gardisil to protect them from HPV and cervical cancer. Many Texans objected to the order as an undue intrusion of state power into private matters. The Legislature responded by passing a bill in May 2007 reversing Perry's order. Further controversy came from the Governor's decision to back the Trans-Texas Corridor, a $145-million dollar project to build multi-lane highways across Texas, with high-flown and quite expensive hopes of improving the State's transportation infrastructure and boosting commerce. This proposed plan would use the State's eminent domain power to seize vast tracts of private land for roadway construction - more of the government intrusion that sits very poorly with Texans. And some, on both sides of the aisle, continue to whisper about Perry's competence. But the critics must answer Governor Perry's accomplishments: a proactive business agenda that has advanced reform, keeping our State afloat while others - California! - list in troubled economic waters. Controversies and whisperings aside, Governor Perry's success will depend on turning out the conservative base that supports him - me included. But Perry will need to amp up his message to achieve that goal.

The Challenger

Like Governor Perry, Senator Hutchison has had an outstanding public service career, beginning in 1990 with her election as Texas State Treasurer. After three years in that seat, she won a June 1993 special election to fill the Senate vacancy created by Lloyd Bentsen's departure. But her rapid rise was not without hazard. Hutchison came under investigation by Democrat prosecutor Ronnie Earle for allegedly using state resources to support her campaign for the Senate seat; but these charges were all eventually - and rather abruptly - dropped, leading to charges that they had been politically motivated.

Senator Hutchison has been an effective Senator for Texas, and the voters have rewarded her with three reelections (1994, 2000, and 2006). She has moved up the leadership chain in the U.S. Senate, as well, now holding the fourth-ranking position among Senate Republicans. Thus, her departure would clearly be a blow to the GOP team on Capitol Hill. This broaches an important issue: whether Texans should support Hutchison's inevitably painful gubernatorial insurgency if her absence in Washington would weaken the national GOP and open up her seat to a Democratic takeover. The question is largely self-answering - the GOP can ill afford losing one of its most powerful GOP senators to a governor's race with a strong incumbent running. Moreover, the odds of Hutchison beating Perry are not good. The life issue is the key ideological dividing line between them; Hutchison is Pro-choice, Perry Pro-life. The vast majority of Texas Republicans are Pro-life and the issue is important - if not decisive - for most Texas Republican voters.

Senator Hutchison is a formidable challenger, having recently been named one of the 30 most powerful women in America by "Ladies Homes Journal;" and she was spoken of as a possible Vice Presidential candidate during last year's contest for the White House. But as 2010 approaches, her moderate social stance on life issues and her absence from state-level governance for so long will push the odds long in any bout with Perry.

The "Opening" Bell

The prize-fight, in fact, has already begun. Hutchison has an exploratory committee underway doing exploring (fund- and friend-raising) and word is she will formally announce for the primary by summer's end. The formal ringing of the bell will kick off a real slug-fest, and, in my judgment, the fight's outcome will turns on two key factors: (1) Perry's capacity to reach and turn out Texas social conservatives while keeping most of the big - and perhaps more moderate - funders in his corner (fundies plus funders equals victory); and (2) Senator Hutchison's success in playing up "Perry fatigue" (he received just 39 percent in the last gubernatorial election) by presenting herself as the "change candidate."

The Line

I expect Governor Perry to continue what has worked for him before - preaching core conservative principles, 24/7. To win a fourth term, however, he must find a way to rally the faithful while developing new policies that appeal to potential new constituencies. Senator Hutchison will be the "change candidate," 24/7, adopting a strategy that recently worked well at the national level. But if she makes the primary election about change, she could run into trouble in the general when the issue flips to a natural Democratic advantage. So she will have to be careful not to oversell the "change is good" mantra. If Hutchison wins the primary and the general, she would become the third woman to hold the Texas Governorship. The other two - Ann Richards and "Ma" Ferguson each served one term. The notion of another female governor intrinsically appeals to Texans, but especially to those who feel change may be necessary for progress.

The change mantra will bring to bear Perry's inevitable counterstrategy: how much change does Texas really need? The State currently enjoys a relatively stable economy compared to the national economy. It is home to more Fortune 500 companies than any other state, has no income tax, no corporate tax, only a one percent franchise tax, a low cost of living, and an unemployment rate much lower than the national average. And Perry has presided over the creation of in excess of one million jobs during the past five years. Although economic times are tough all over right now, the causes have nothing to do with anything Governor Perry did. Indeed, if there is an argument to make on this front, it could cut against Hutchison. So "Change" has been in the air lately - but, politically speaking, spring 2010 is an eon away. By primary time, "stability" might be back as the better mantra. Perry can only hope. In the meantime, there's a prize fight to watch; and it will be a doozy.