For Gop, Glimmers Of Hope

NEW YORK - The Republicans arrive in New York in an anxious mood, and no wonder.

It has been 20 years since a Republican president won re-election. Back in 1984, it was "morning in America": The economy was rocketing toward prosperity, new technologies like the personal computer were remaking the world, the Soviets had been thrust on the defensive, and every poll showed Ronald Reagan certain to cruise to an easy victory. In the end, he won by a landslide, sweeping every state except Minnesota (and the District of Columbia). Reagan even won Massachusetts that year.

This time, things are a lot tougher. Through the spring and summer, more than half of Americans surveyed -- 60% in the Los Angeles Times poll released on Thursday -- have said they think the country is on the "wrong track."

Iraq remains violent and unsettled; Osama bin Laden continues at large. On Friday, the Commerce Department announced that the U.S. economy grew at an annual rate of only 2.8% in the second quarter of the year, down from the 4.5% rate set in the first quarter. The President's approval ratings have hovered at or below the 50% mark.

And yet, glimmers of hope are appearing.

John Kerry has had a very, very bad two weeks. "[M]any Democrats, who have been tearing their hair out as they have watched this story unfold like a slow-motion car wreck, aren't just angry at the media. They are also blaming the Kerry campaign for allowing the accusations to metastasize into a clear threat to a Democratic victory," writes Ryan Lizza in The New Republic Online.

Since the Swift Boat ads first aired on Aug. 5, John Kerry's lead has vanished in almost every poll. Friday's Wall Street Journal/NBC poll showed the President ahead 47-45. The Los Angeles Times poll put Bush first by a margin of 49-46, the first time he has led in that poll all year. CNN/USA Today's latest has Bush at 50, Kerry at 47. Bush is up by five points in Ohio, four points in Wisconsin, and two points in must-win Missouri.

Another way to think of it: He is doing 10 points better than his father was doing at this point in the 1988 race.

Already, before his speech begins, Bush has 10-point leads on most terrorism-related questions. After Thursday that lead should be bigger still -- and terrorism is, of course, the dominant issue of the election. And if the President is not convincing enough, America will hear from Rudy Giuliani, John McCain and the Terminator about George Bush's qualifications to lead.

One crucial difference between the parties this year is that Republicans support their party's candidate much more intensely than Democrats support theirs. Democrats seem to feel about John Kerry exactly as the Republicans of San Diego felt about Bob Dole in 1996: They see him as a superior alternative to a detested president -- but they feel little warmth for him personally and not much confidence in his appeal as a candidate.

Christopher Hitchens summed up the mood in The New York Times on Aug. 15:

"How often have you met a self-described Kerry supporter? ... I've asked this question on radio and on television, and on campus and in the other places where people sing, and I've heard only a slight shuffling of Democratic feet."

In New York, you will hear the stamping of Republican feet -- and the yelling of Republican voices, too. Whatever his other faults and weaknesses, George Bush is a great party leader. Unlike Ronald Reagan, who never much cared about down-ticket candidates, Bush has toiled relentlessly to help Republican senators, congressmen, governors and state assemblymen. He led the party to an off-year surprise triumph in 2002, and the officials he helped are grateful.

The Bush family has always understood that politics is a very personal business. Like his father -- and very unlike Ronald Reagan and Richard Nixon -- Bush is a master of one-to-one politicking. He knows names and has a smile for county chairmen, precinct captains and individual Republican delegates. I wonder if John Kerry has ever in his career made an ordinary individual Democrat feel that he was glad to see him or her. Bush does it every single time.

Presidential elections are not, however, won by one-to-one politics. Much as the delegates enjoy the glad-handing and cocktails, the serious business of the convention is the presentation of George Bush to the nation. In Philadelphia in 2000, Bush eloquently delivered a moving speech that convinced millions of Americans that, yes, this seemingly brash young governor might after all have the depth and grace to lead a nation.

Four years later, George Bush no longer has to introduce himself. But it's the nature of modern media that very few Americans have heard George Bush speak unmediated and unedited anytime this year. They have seen Bush in clips and on news programs -- and they have heard at length from his critics and detractors. Now at last they will hear from him. And when Americans see Bush direct, they find they like him and trust him.

Thursday's speech will seek to tap that reservoir of goodwill. He may propose this new program or that one; he may (though he probably won't) offer some details on the future progress of the war on terror; but his principal message will be personal: This is the kind of leader we need now -- this is the kind of leader I am.

It's the same message that John Kerry delivered in Boston, so the choice will be clear, even stark.

Maybe the worried Republicans of New York should relax a little.