Florida: GOP Showdown Looms
The opening Iowa caucuses are emerging as a contest to be the standard-bearer for the party's social conservatives, a battle that draws Michele Bachmann, Tim Pawlenty, Rick Santorum and Herman Cain. The first primary, in New Hampshire, is shaping up as a fight to represent the Republican establishment, critical for Mitt Romney and Jon Huntsman. There are early contests in South Carolina— the first test in the South, the GOP's regional base — and Nevada.
Then comes Florida.
In a campaign with no commanding front-runner, Florida looms as a megastate showdown between the party's traditional conservatives and its new breed of populist activists. A candidate like Romney could rebound here after suffering setbacks from social conservatives in Iowa and South Carolina, for instance. Or a Tea Party favorite like Bachmann could demonstrate her ability to prevail with a broad electorate.