Florida Feud Could Cost GOP Gov Race

In the Florida GOP gubernatorial primary fight between Rick Scott and Bill McCollum the real winner may be Democratic nominee Alex Sink.

Ever heard of Alex Sink? Yeah, neither has anyone in Florida... but that hasn't stopped her from taking the lead over both Rick Scott and Bill McCollum in PPP's latest survey of the Florida gubernatorial race.

Earlier today we ran my interview of Florida GOP frontrunner Rick Scott. Well, in becoming the frontrunner, Mr. Scott has had to start a civil war with the GOP establishment favorite, Bill McCollum, and at least for now, the Democrats are the ones winning. But perhaps more importantly, the poll also reveals that Scott has emerged as the Republican candidate best positioned to win in November.

If the election were held today, PPP predicts that Sink would take 36% of the vote, which would be 6% clear of the 30% of voters that Scott would win and 13% that Bud Chiles would take. If McCollum were to somehow recover to become the nominee, he would get annihilated by a margin of 37-23 with Chiles getting 14%.

In whacking each other upside the head so very often, Scott and McCollum have ensured that Democrats and independents are not so fond of either of them. PPP finds that only 23% of Florida voters view Scott favorably and 41% view him unfavorably. The most troubling figure, though, is that PPP finds that 40% of independent voters have an unfavorable opinion of Scott. Of course, McCollum does even worse.

While Sink leads McCollum now, she trailed him by 44-31 in PPP's March survey.  That said, Sink hasn't really had to fight for her lead.  PPP finds that 54% of voters still don't have an opinion of her. PPP also points out that if Scott is the nominee, as seems likely, 25% of Republican voters are undecided. Once he becomes the nominee, he should be able to consolidate Republican support, making the race a dead heat or even possibly putting him ahead.

That said, if Rick Scott wins the nomination, it will be vital that the GOP establishment in Florida throw its weight behind him and ensure that McCollum backers turn out on Election Day.  Otherwise, a no name Democrat that has no business winning in Florida could surprise at the polls. Scott has considerably deeper pockets than either of his opponents and thus will have a sizable advertising advantage to paint the unknown Sink as a not so wonderful option. Is Ranger Rick an ideal candidate? No, absolutely not. Scott has serious baggage with his Columbia/HCA ties and his lack of political experience.  But he also has dollars and has gone from rich guy playing politician for fun to presumptive Republican nominee -- so he can play, at least a little.

It will be a tough pill to swallow for the establishment, but for Republicans the choice is Rick Scott or a Democrat. So the million dollar question: just how much does the Florida GOP establishment hate Rick Scott?