Ryan: 'It's Not A Budget, It's A Cause'

12:57pm:

The last question to Ryan: do you regret your vote on TARP?

Ryan: No. I hate TARP, but we needed to prevent a deflationary spiral.

And with that, Ryan is back to Congress to go vote.

12:54pm:

Ryan gets a DCCC press release read to him.The press release is (predictably) attack oriented, so Ryan responds that his budget is indeed a political weapon for the Democrats to use, and says that it is better to offer a plan which is predictable to prevent an economic debt crisis even if there is demagoguing from opponents.

12:47pm:

A journalist asks: Do you have a consensus for your medicare changes? (From the GOP Caucus)

Ryan: I've had about 30 sessions with reps. "Once somebody understands the true nature of our fiscal peril, they are on board." Says the caucus is on board.

12:43pm:

Phil Klein asks: Why premium support and not vouchers? (For Medicare)

Ryan: They achieve the same result.

Ryan: "It works more like plans people are already familiar with." Again refers to Medicare Part D and healthcare plans for congress.

Phil Klein also asks a smart question on how to deal with the underlying healthcare costs. Ryan says that he wants to remove the healthcare insurance tax benefit. But thats not for this budget, that will be for a later bill from the Commerce Committee.

12:38pm:

Ryan on why he didn't put Social Security in the budget:

"It would be too tempting for Democrats to attack."

Instead he requires putting a trigger in place to force Congress and the President to act on it.

12:36pm

I just asked if Ryan's budget would be ok with Tom Coburn's efforts to remove the ethanol subsidy - he says yes! But also says it's a Ways and Means Committee issue.

12:29pm:

"This budget marks the House majority's answer to history's call"

12:27pm:

Ryan invokes first principles when talking about the tax code section. Argues that a tax code has to be considered form the perspective of "what is the proper role of government."

Ryan notes that his lower rates and other tax changes "[are] reforms are designed to be permanent changes in law"

By Ryan's own standard, this is more ambitious than the original Bush tax cuts.

12:24pm:

Ryan begins perhaps the most politically sensitive part of the program, the Medicare and Social Security part:

For Ryan, "The open ended, blank check nature of Medicare" is the problem.

Compares his solution to the government employee plan and Medicare Advantage. His talking points are largely identical to the WSJ op-ed.

His plan for Social Security is to require the President and Congress to come up with a plan. The budget does not mandate any reforms, though Ryan does favorably cite many of the reforms proposed by the bi-partisan deficit commission. ("Raising the retirement age" becomes "reflect the demographic changes" in Ryan lingo.)

12:20pm:

Ryan argues that this budget continues in the tradition of 1990's welfare reform. "Medicaid suffers from the same flawed structure that welfare suffered from."

"They [doctors] are losing money every time a Medicaid patient visits their offices."

Ryan also cites that other programs, such as food stamps, are not modernized. Very much wants to invoke the 90's era idea that welfare reform needs to lead to an end of dependency.

12:15pm:

Ryan lets out the key talking points on the budget. They are that the budget is:

1. More efficient

2. Based on state-led welfare reform from the 90's & strengthens social safety net

3. Achieves the mission of health and retirement safety

4. Reforms the tax code

"This is a jobs budget, it send a signal to investors and entrepreneurs."

Ryan then cites a Heritage study of the budget and gives some very ambitious predictions:

"The path to prosperity will make 1 million jobs" in the first year alone.

Ryan also says that if enacted, unemployment will reach 4% in 2015.

And it will raise wages by $1.1 trillion.

These are some VERY ambitious predictions.

12:10pm:

So far, a lot of this is a repeat of his WSJ op-ed, but what is clear is that Ryan wants this to be a budget that the GOP will run on: "Today we change the debate."

Ryan notes that American voters have rejected government under a unified party in 2006 and 2010. He argues that what is needed is a mature conversation that treats Americans like adults.

Ryan says that the debt debate "transcends what fraction a government worker in Madison sends to his retirement," giving it a grounding in recent news events.

Ryan also notes that his plan"is not just a budget, it's a cause." At the risk of editorializing, Ryan is framing this budget debate as one beyond just numbers. This is about values.

12:03am:

AEI staffers have just distributed a 70-page summary of the Ryan budget.

AEI President Arthur Brooks is introducing Ryan:

"He joins us here at AEI to show that freedom is painted on many canvasses, and the budget is one of them."

We are told there will be a 20 minute speech followed by a Q&A.

11:52am:

While we wait for Paul Ryan to present his Budget to an audience of donors, fellows, and journalists at AEI, we can watch this three minute video from the House Budget Committee which presents the GOP budget in an "Inconvenient Truth" style with Ryan interacting with a dynamic and fluctuating chart:

I am noticing that a lot of liberals (and apparently Nancy Pelosi and other elected Democrats) are already attacking the budget for the cuts and reforms that it makes.

The question is how effective those lines of attack will be when Ryan is able to make a very convincing and visually appealing case that "we are doomed, but with my plan we are not doomed."

A lot of thought seems to have been given to how to make this plan something that Republicans, including the eventual GOP nominee, can run on.