FF Centrist Watch: Final Centrist Roundup
UPDATED: FrumForum follows centrist Republicans in competitive races! 8 of 14 centrists we were watching tonight were elected, as were 2 of 4 NY centrists.
FrumForum has been keeping track of centrist Republicans in races across the country. Eight out of fourteen of the centrists we were watching tonight either elected, or too close to call.
Although centrists across the country had a good evening last night, we did see a couple incumbent centrists go down on the battlefield: Rep. Charles Djou fell to Colleen Hanabusa in Hawaii's 1st CD, and Rep. Joseph Cao fell to Cedric Richmond in Louisiana's 2nd CD.
New York Centrists:
Nan Hayworth (NY-19) - WIN
Michael Grimm (NY-13) - WIN
Matt Doheny (NY-23) - LOSS
Randy Altschuler (NY-1) - LOSS
Centrists Nationwide
Lou Barletta (PA-11) - WIN
Pat Meehan (PA-7) - WIN
Bobby Schilling (IL-17) - WIN
Sean Duffy (WI-7) - WIN
Charlie Bass (NH-2) - WIN
Mike Fitzpatrick (PA-8) - WIN
Randy Hultgren (IL-14) - WIN
Joe Heck (NV-3) - WIN
Andy Vidak (CA-20) - LIKELY WIN, too close too call, up by 1.2% with 100% reporting.
Ruth McClung (AZ-7) - LIKELY LOSS, trailing by 2.8% with 99.6% reporting
Scott Bruun (OR-5) - LOSS
Jeff Perry (MA-10) - LOSS
Dan Debicella (CT-4) - LOSS
Sam Caligiuri (CT-5) - LOSS
Posted at 12:41pm by Tim Mak
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Two of four centrist Republicans we were watching in New York have won, and a third race is too close to call. Doug Hoffman again plays the spoiler in NY-23, as his name on the Conservative Party line cost Republican Matt Doheny a seat in Congress.
Below is the full list of centrist Republicans we followed tonight.
Lou Barletta (PA-11) - WIN
Pat Meehan (PA-7) - WIN
Bobby Schilling (IL-17) - WIN
Sean Duffy (WI-7) - WIN
Charlie Bass (NH-2) - WIN
Mike Fitzpatrick (PA-8) - WIN
Randy Hultgren (IL-14) - WIN
Joe Heck (NV-3) - TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Scott Bruun (OR-5) - TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Ruth McClung (AZ-7) - TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Andy Vidak (CA-20) - TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Jeff Perry (MA-10) - LOSS
Dan Debicella (CT-4) - LOSS
Sam Caligiuri (CT-5) - LOSS
New York Centrists:
Randy Altschuler (NY-1) - TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Nan Hayworth (NY-19) - WIN
Michael Grimm (NY-13) - WIN
Matt Doheny (NY-23) - LOSS
Posted at 1:14am by Tim Mak
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Reports from NY: Michael Grimm takes Staten Island (NY-13), and Chris Gibson wins too! Another two great Congressmen to Congress.
More worrying: Matt Doheny is down by about 5 points in NY-23. Doug Hoffman to play spoiler, it looks like. He's picking up about 5 points on the Conservative Party ticket. Democrat Bill Owens back to Congress... some talk from NY Republicans who I've talked to: gerrymandering post-2010 will carve out out a safe seat for Owens.
Posted at 12:17am by Tim Mak
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Great news, Nan Hayworth HQ gave me a call - her Democratic opponent just phoned to concede. Great candidate headed to Congress!
Posted at 11:48pm by Tim Mak
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NY-01 may not be decided tonight. Rob Ryan, GOPer Randy Altschuler's spox, writes to me:
"Don't know [if race will be decided tonight]....Smithtown and Brookhaven haven't reported ...they are 2 biggest towns ....numbers are coming in very slow....must be the new machines."
Posted at 11:45pm by Tim Mak
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In PA-11, Republican Lou Barletta wins.
IN PA 07, GOPer Patrick Meehan wins.
In IL-17, Bobby Schilling wins.
Another three expected centrists to D.C.!
In PA-8, Republican Fitzpatrick has been declared the winner with 53.7% of the vote. In IL-14, Randy Hultgren is the winner with 51.4% of the vote.
Two more centrists coming to Congress.
Posted at 11:10pm by Tim Mak
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Connecticut numbers coming in.
Politico calls CT-4 for Republican Jim Hines!
In CT-5, Chris Murphy (D) is beating Sam Caligiuri (R) 52.9% to 47.1% with 50% reporting.
Posted at 11:02pm by Tim Mak
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Nan Hayworth HQ tells me that they're currently running at 54-45. #NY19
Posted at 10:30pm by Tim Mak
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Nan Hayworth up nearly 30%, with 8% precincts reporting.
However, Doheny is down by about five points in NY-23. The margin of error? Doug Hoffman.
Posted at 10:15pm by Tim Mak
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Rob Ryan, comms dir for Randy Altschuler in NY-1: "Heavy turnout in favorable districts... cautiously optimistic."
Posted at 9:57pm by Tim Mak
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Nan Hayworth HQ in #NY1 / #NY01 - Looks like a busy HQ, that of a winner!
Posted at 9:07 pm by Tim Mak
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First numbers coming out look good. 2/4 of our first centrists leading with single digit % of precincts reporting:
Jeff Perry (MA-10) - 44.7% to Bill Keaton's 46.6% with 5% reporting.
Dan Debicella (CT-4) - 59.3% with 1.4% reporting.
Charlie Bass (NH-2) - 50.5% with 6.9% reporting.
Sam Caligiuri (CT-5) - 47.6% to Chris Murphy's 52.4% with 3.4% reporting
Posted at 8:57pm by Tim Mak
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First numbers coming out of New York at 9PM EDT. Stay tuned!
Posted at 8:38pm by Tim Mak
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How many NY seats will the Republican Party win tonight?
Posted at 7:02pm by Tim Mak
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Races we're watching in CentristWatch, from a list compiled by Dr. Boris Shor at the University of Chicago:
Jeff Perry (MA-10)
Dan Debicella (CT-4)
Charlie Bass (NH-2)
Sam Caligiuri (CT-5)
Joe Heck (NV-3)
Mike Fitzpatrick (PA-8)
Scott Bruun (OR-5)
Randy Hultgren (IL-14)
Ruth McClung (AZ-7)
Andy Vidak (CA-20)
Lou Barletta (PA-11)
Bobby Schilling (IL-17)
Pat Meehan (PA-7)
Sean Duffy (WI-7)
I'm also going to throw in some of the centrists in New York that I'm looking at:
Randy Altschuler (NY-1)
Nan Hayworth (NY-19)
Michael Grimm (NY-13)
Matt Doheny (NY-23)
Posted at 6:45pm by Tim Mak
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