Fate of Sweden's Center-Right Coalition Up in the Air
By media reports, it may appear that the outcome of the Swedish general election has been settled. In reality the election is still up in the air. Overseas voters may tip the balance in determining if the center-right Alliance will gain an overall majority in the parliament.
Right now just over 7, 000 ballots—of over 5.8 million cast—separate the Alliance from the combined opposition parties of the red-green bloc and Sweden Democrats.
But more than 100,000 overseas and late absentee ballots remain to be tallied. Overseas voters are more likely to vote for the Alliance and will determine if the Alliance will get a majority in the parliament.
However, the Swedish electoral system is designed such that the Alliance can hold a slight majority of ballots without obtaining a majority in parliament.
If that happens, the situation may be reminiscent of the year 2000 presidential elections in the United States in which readers will remember that Al Gore won a slight majority in overall ballots, but George W. Bush won the election based on electoral votes.
The debate on this flaw in the Swedish electoral system is already underway. In an op-ed published in the Swedish daily paper Svenska Dagbladet, math professor Svante Linusson calls for a change to the Swedish election legislation.
In theory, Sweden has proportional representation, but it is not exactly proportionate. The country is divided into 29 parliamentary constituencies to ensure that every province is represented. Then there are 39 extra seats to compensate any imbalance in the outcome. But the system is designed for five parliamentary parties, not for the eight parties currently in play in Sweden, unbalancing the distribution of extra seats. This was true already in the 2006 election, but it did not impact the formation of government then.
This election, however, the design of the electoral system may result in the Alliance holding a majority of the votes without an independent parliamentary majority. The red-green opposition and Sweden Democrats, if they join forces, could then bring down the government. While an organized partnership between the red-green parties and Sweden Democrats seems unlikely, it cannot be ignored that the Sweden Democrats may follow the red-green voting recommendations on some issues. If so, the Alliance government would be toppled.
Prime Minister Fredrik Reinfeldt has signaled an interest in holding talks with the Greens to explore possible opportunities for cooperation in order to achieve a majority. The Green Party has been unsympathetic so far.
The final election results will be ready on Wednesday. Overseas votes will determine its outcome.