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Obama's budget plan calls for reducing the huge federal deficit - now almost 10% of GDP - to 3% by the end of his first term. How? By reducing defense expenditure and raising income taxes on the rich. These advertised numbers do not add up. 

Reality check:

1) The 3% deficit target for 2013 will still be higher than all but two of the net budget deficits (on budget + off budget) of that notorious fiscal wastrel George W. Bush. (Fiscal 2003 and fiscal 2004 both slightly exceeded 3%.)

2) Even assuming a swift return of prosperity, Obama's promises do not add up. The dreaded 1% paid $408.4 billion in income taxes in fiscal 2006, according to the nonpartisan Tax Foundation. How much more can be squeezed out of them?

3) True, the top 1% had almost $1.8 trillion of income left over after taxes in fiscal 2006. If they earned that same amount in 2013, and agreed to hand over 80% of that untaxed remainder to the Treasury, that would suffice to reach the 3% deficit target. 

4) But it seems unlikely that the top 1% will earn so much again anytime soon. Recessions hit capital income hardest, and until full recovery comes, incomes at the top will be squeezed.

5) And isn't there some limit to the taxes that can be imposed on the top? It was already true in 2006 that the top 1% earned 22% of the income but paid almost 40% of the taxes. You don't have to be an editor at the Wall Street Journal to recognize that taking 80% of the remainder will prove difficult and surely counter-productive. 

6) Hopes of finding savings in the defense budget will quickly prove illusory. President Obama is winding down the war in Iraq. But he is gearing up for a big and expensive escalation in Afghanistan.

7) And remember - we have not yet budgeted for the costs of President Obama's health proposals.

8) Scroll your eye further down the income scale, however, and the numbers soon get very big. In fiscal 2006, the top 50% earned $7 trillion. Now that's money - money enough to fund even the Obama administration's plans.

9) Brace yourselves for a new fiscal reality: spending has just breached the historic 20% ceiling. We're looking at a federal government that claims a quarter of national income for many years to come. Taxes will have to raise very broadly to support that government - and even so, deficits will remain high and debts grow big. President Obama has successfully used this crisis to buy himself a dramatically bigger government. Now it's going to have to be paid for, in taxes today and borrowed taxes from tomorrow.