Europe's Coming Refugee Crisis
The turmoil in Arab North Africa is not only a political crisis: It could soon trigger a global migration crisis.
The turmoil in Arab North Africa is not only a political crisis: It could soon trigger a global migration crisis.
Already, 5,000 Tunisians have attempted to migrate to Italy since the collapse of the Ben Ali regime. The would-be migrants are being held on the Italian island of Lampedusa, while the Italian government decides what to do.
Italy's foreign minister, Franco Frattini, has publicly worried that 300,000 Libyans might try to flee to Italy after a collapse of the Gaddafi regime. It is less than 200 miles by sea from the Libyan capital of Tripoli to Lampedusa.
Spain legalized 750,000 illegal immigrants in 2007. Unsurprisingly, that generous amnesty only summoned more illegal immigration. Moroccans claim refugee status after crossing into Spain's North African enclave, Ceuta. West Africans cram into boats for the 800-mile journey by sea to Spain's Canary Islands.
And what of Egypt? Fully one-quarter of all Egyptians in their 20s are enrolled in a university. To employ these graduates, Egypt has hugely expanded its government sector. By some estimates, 35% of employed Egyptians work for the state. But as fast as the bureaucracy grows, it cannot keep up: Unemployment among university-educated Egyptians is pervasive. How many of these graduates would prefer to live in wealthy Europe?
The Arab world - especially the North African Arab world - is in turmoil because of the economic and political failure of Arab - and especially North African - governments.
Increasingly, the people of these societies look to migration as their solution.
Yet their solution is Europe's problem. Voluntarily and involuntarily, Europe is now receiving 1.7 million immigrants a year -more than the United States. Europe's immigrants come overwhelmingly from the Middle East and North Africa, and they are overwhelmingly Muslim in religion.
These migrants do not usually arrive with the skills necessary to succeed in an advanced economy. They pool at the bottom of the labor force and often turn to crime or political extremism.
Unfortunately both for the immigrants and for the native-born, Europe's generous welfare states offer the low-skilled an attractive alternative to work.
Here's a number that drives home the point, drawn from Christopher Caldwell's thoughtful and careful study, Reflections on the Revolution in Europe. Between 1971 and 2000, the number of immigrants living in Germany more than doubled, from 3 million to 7.5 million. The number of immigrants in the German workforce, however, did not increase at all: It remained fixed at 2 million.
In recent weeks, the Chancellor of Germany, the Prime Minister of Britain and the President of France have all described their societies' experience of recent immigration as a failure. These leaders do not use the word "immigration": They say "multiculturalism," but everybody understands what they mean.
Migration pressure on Europe's borders now seems likely to intensify. Violent repression, as in Libya, frightens non-combatants to flee the fighting. Political turmoil has disrupted economies from Morocco to the Persian Gulf, driving the unemployed to seek work away from home.
Oil prices have jumped, which means food prices will soon follow, intensifying destitution among the region's poor.
And all the while, the societies of the Middle East and North Africa continue to fail.
Middle Eastern and North African populations are surging: Egypt is up from 20 million in 1950 to 80 million today. Two-thirds of all Arabs are under age 25. Some 80 million net new jobs are required over the next 15 years just to keep pace with the population explosion.
Europe tries to help by promoting freer trade. The European Union has free trade agreements with North African countries dating back to the 1960s. In 2004, Egypt, Tunisia, Jordan and Morocco signed at Agadir an agreement to create a Free Trade Area with the EU. Those four countries now send more than half their exports to the EU.
Yet the exports first have to be created, and that is the problem for all non-oil-producing Middle Eastern and North African countries. It's estimated that one-third of all Egyptians in paid employment work for the state. State-led economies are stagnating economies. In 1960, GDP per capita in Syria was higher than in South Korea; Algeria's was very nearly the equal of Portugal's. As recently as 1980, Egyptian GDP per capita was 250% of China's; today China's is 75% higher than Egypt's.
What can be done? Europe is fortifying its borders. Spain built an Israeli-style fence around Ceuta. European warships patrol the waterways between Tunisia and Lampedusa. Immigration enforcement is tightening inside Europe.
And beyond that? Nobody seems to have any idea. Well, of course, there is always one idea: A UN Security Council resolution condemning Israel. The latest was vetoed by the United States just last week.
Originally published in the National Post.