Electoral Consequences of Same-Sex Marriage

Now that the ruling in the Proposition 8 case has been handed down, conservatives should take note that the same-sex marriage issue did NOT help the GOP in 2004.

I make this point in my 2007 book, Comeback, but it's worth repeating now: The same-sex marriage issue did NOT help the GOP in 2004.

Simon Jackman of Stanford offers the numbers:

Of the 5 states in which George W. Bush's vote rose MOST between 2000 and 2004, not one had a same-sex marriage initiative on the ballot. Of the 10 states in which Bush's vote rose LEAST, three had such an initiative.

Some say Ohio was tipped to Bush by a same-sex marriage initiative. But Bush won Ohio in 2000. Measured by increase in the Bush share of the vote, Ohio ranked 41 out of 50.