Egypt's Threat to Israel

If protesters succeed in toppling Mubarak, Israelis fear that a new Egyptian regime might prove a much more dangerous neighbor for the Jewish state.

My latest column for CNN explores some of the reasons that the Israelis are apprehensive about the protests taking place in Egypt:

An Israeli observer describes the mood of this country's leadership as it watches the crisis in Egypt: "It varies," he said, "from gloom to doom."

The protesters demanding the end of President Hosni Mubarak's government are not concerned with Israel, much.

They have concerns closer to home: poverty, corruption, political oppression.

But if the protesters succeed in toppling the Mubarak government, Israelis fear that an alternative Egyptian government might prove a much more dangerous neighbor for the Jewish state.

What do Israelis fear? Some scenarios:

1) Right now, Egypt cooperates with Israel in isolating the Hamas regime in Gaza. What if Egypt changes its mind? If Egypt stops policing the border between Gaza and Sinai, Israel will be forced into an ugly choice. Allow Hamas to import weapons or else intrude into Egyptian territory to close the border itself.

2) The Mubarak regime operates an effective if heavy-handed counterterrorism regime inside Egypt. Egypt has produced its share of terrorists: the blind sheikh who tried to blow up New York landmarks, 9/11 ringleader Mohammed Atta. But these terrorists have been compelled by Egypt's efficient police to operate outside Egypt. What if that changed? If the Egyptian police collapse, Cairo -- population 17 million -- suddenly becomes an attractive place for terrorists to hide.

3) Israel enjoys peace on its two longest borders, with Egypt and Jordan. Peace has enabled Israel to reduce defense spending from about one-quarter of GDP in the 1980s to 9% by the end of the 1990s to only 6.7% in 2010. Peace has also freed Israel to concentrate its forces against a shorter list of threats. A hostile turn by Egypt will intensify Israel's security problems and force increases in Israel's defense spending.

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