Operation "Drill, Baby, Drill" Goes Bust

While the “drill, baby, drill” gang like to tout Alaska as America’s Saudi Arabia of oil, the truth is that it holds far less oil than they would have us believe.

Until this week, the best geological estimates of oil reserves indicated that the United States sits atop a scant 3 percent of the world’s remaining oil. Today, there is reason to believe that meager projection was overly optimistic.

One of the most promising onshore areas for oil has been the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska (NPRA). Located on Alaska’s North Slope west of Prudhoe Bay, the massive NPRA was estimated to hold 10.6 billion barrels of oil and 53 trillion cubic feet of natural gas.

This week, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), after analyzing new data from three-dimensional seismic surveys and more than 30 exploration wells, released a revised estimate on the amount of "undiscovered" oil and gas that is likely to be found in the NPRA. The results might make the “drill, baby, drill” crowd “cry, baby, cry.”

The USGS now estimates only 896 million barrels of conventional, undiscovered oil lies beneath the NPRA, roughly 10 percent of the 2002 estimate. That amount is enough to supply the U.S. at its current consumption rate for a whopping 45 days.

This not only underscores the urgency of conserving energy and reducing our heavy dependence on oil and other finite fossil fuels, it should also be a cautionary tale for those who have visions of Arctic National Wildlife Refuge oil rigs dancing in their heads.

The estimated amount of oil sitting beneath the Refuge’s coastal plain—and beneath the 400,000 caribou feet that prance across its tundra each summer—has ranged between 4.3 to 11.8 billion barrels. That wide ranging estimate is based primarily on some old seismic testing conducted in the 1980s.

In 1986, a consortium led by Chevron sank the only test well, dubbed KIC-1, ever drilled in the Arctic Refuge. The consortium probed 1,500 feet into one of the most promising formations and ever since has endeavored to keep the results of that test,well, super secret.

Yet, over the years, several anonymous sources familiar with the well have said that it was basically a dry hole.

While the “drill, baby, drill” gang—including the Alaska congressional delegation and Sarah Palin—like to tout Alaska’s North Slope and the Arctic Refuge as America’s Saudi Arabia of oil, the truth is that it holds far less oil than these drilling advocates would have us believe.

They want to bury their heads in the permafrost, ignore geologic realities, and pin America’s energy future to little more than their own baseless and fanciful notions.

Every day that the public and our nation’s leaders are distracted by unrealistic expectations regarding America’s domestic oil reserves, the slower we make the necessary shift towards the alternative energy sources and technologies required to power our future—and the more we enrich our enemies, imperil our security, ravage our environment, and lurch ever closer towards economic ruin.

It’s time to wake up.