Don't Count Rahm Out

Rahm Emanuel is back on the ballot. With him leading the field and lining up money and endorsements, did anyone really think a court would deny him his prize?

Surprise, Surprise.  Rahm Emanuel, the president’s former chief of staff,  is back on the ballot for mayor of Chicago.  The appellate court that threw him off the ballot yesterday has been checked.  The opinion of that court is a straight forward exercise in what lawyers call “statutory construction.”

That is they looked at the statute, noted that it required both that a person be an elector and that they reside in Chicago for the past year.  The court easily found that Rahm Emanuel is an elector and may vote in Chicago’s mayoral election.  They found however that there is no exception (as there is for an elector) for someone in the service of the U.S. government outside of Chicago.  Rahm, as many witnesses can attest, lived in Washington D.C. last year.  He leased his house to a fellow disinclined to move when he came back.

The Illinois Supreme Court has now stayed this ruling and will have the ballots printed with Rahm Emanuel’s name.  Emanuel is leading the mayoral field.  He has money and endorsements.  Can a law saying he was not a resident deny him his prize?  I was stunned by the appellate court decision and I would be stunned if this holds as well.  The law in these situations usually bends to the Democrat’s will.  In New Jersey, with a similar political and legal culture to Chicago, the law clearly stated that a party could not withdraw its candidate and substitute another, but the New Jersey Supreme Court unanimously allowed it when Bob Torricelli became too toxic to get elected., and the Democrats were in danger of losing.

Now we have a residency law blocking the rise of a native son of Chicago.  The law was put in to forestall some carpetbagger from Springfield, for instance, coming into Chicago and taking the top job.  I think the majority opinion is a fine job of statutory construction, and that Emanuel while a Chicagoan by birth was not a resident for the last year.  Once the front runner is on the ballot for months and months the Illinois Supreme Court will have a hard time knocking him off the ballot-whatever the law says.

One caveat, there is famously a disconnect between Cook County and “downstate.”  I do not know the make-up of the Illinois Supreme Court but feel that downstate appointments to the court may not feel as strong a tug to come out the “right” way.  Right now, I’m betting 70/30 Emanuel wins.  Not because he should but because from the Chicago perspective, he must.

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