Don't Count Out the GOP in Chicago's Mayoral Race

Despite Mayor Daley's terrific legacy, Chicago is facing tough times and the city's voters may be open to a Republican candidate with fresh ideas.

The more interesting question these days is whether a Republican could win city hall in Chicago for the first time since 1931. Ever since Mayor Daley's announcement, the local media has taken it as a foregone conclusion that only a Democrat can win, and has spent its time covering the legion of Democratic contenders.

But, with a stagnant economy, a financial crisis of epic proportions brewing at city hall, and a stubbornly high homicide rate, the city electorate may demand real change.  There may be a role for a Republican with fresh ideas and a business background to fix things in much the same way that Giuliani and now Bloomberg changed the power calculus in New York after decades of Democratic rule.

The Democratic machine isn't what it used to be, so even Democrats cannot fully count on it if their last name isn't Daley. Also, the mayoral primary in February will be Chicago's first non-partisan primary ever, which might open the door for an independent that could easily alter the general election math.

As an example, ex-pawn broker Scott Lee Cohen came out of nowhere to win the Democratic primary for Lieutenant Governor last March on the strength of his job message and is now angling to be an independent spoiler in the general election in November.

Bottom line: in spite of a terrific Daley legacy, these are tough times for Chicago, so the electorate may be open to a new party, a new message, and new solutions.