Does Anyone Really Trust the Muslim Brotherhood?

Having representation of Islamic parties in the Egyptian parliament is one thing. But seeing them hold executive power will be something very different.

As readers have probably noted, I'm one of those less excited by - and more wary of - the protests in Egypt. I hold no brief for Hosni Mubarak, but worry greatly that the next regime could be a lot worse for the Egyptians themselves, for peace in the region, and for (no apology for considering these uppermost) the national security interests of the United States.

Those interests require: preserving control of the Egyptian army, security forces and Suez Canal away from the control of radical Islamist groups. Representation of Islamic parties in the Egyptian parliament is one thing. Executive power something very different. Happily the existing Egyptian constitution makes it possible to separate the two.

For those who do feel less cautious about the Egyptian revolutionary movement, please, please do consider this reality check by Barry Rubin of the Gloria Center in Israel:

Consider the following chart:

Who in the Middle East could the United States depend on five years ago to support its basic policy goals?
Egypt, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, Turkey

Who in the Middle East can the United States basically depend on today?
Israel, Iraq (?), Jordan (until next week?), Saudi Arabia

Who in the Middle East is likely to oppose basic U.S. policy goals today?
Egypt (soon), Gaza Strip (Hamas), Iran, Lebanon (Hizballah), Libya, Sudan, Syria. Turkey

Might there be a trend here?

Rubin continues:

But what really riles me is when Westerners write a sentence like this one:

"It's incumbent on Islamists who are elected democratically to behave democratically."

Please contemplate those dozen words. What if they don't? What are you going to do about it after they are in power? What if they take your concessions but not your advice? The United States conditioned the Muslim Brotherhood's participation in Egypt's next government on that group's abandoning violence and supporting "democratic goals." There is no chance that it will meet those conditions and also no chance that the United States would try to enforce them.

I have an idea: why don't we wait until we have some reason to believe they will behave democratically before you put them into power?

Let's remember a little detail here: You are all willing to ignore everything the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood has said or done for decades. You have no idea of their proposals in parliament, do you? You have no idea of their recent platform, do you? You have no idea what the Brotherhood's leader is saying in his speeches, do you? Nor do you take these things into account.

So how dare you tell me that the Brotherhood is or is about to become moderate when you cannot cite a single piece of evidence--well, ElBaradei's word when he lies to you about these things--to prove your thesis. Not one. Don't you realize that victory has made the Islamists arrogant. They are becoming more radical, not less so. And mainstream clerics in Egypt, for example, have also become increasingly more extremist, well before the latest crisis.

Frankly, the more these people talk like this about Islamists, the more I don't believe them. If they had any real proof they would offer it. And their ignorance makes me suspect their conclusions.

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