Djou's Next Challenge

With Charles Djou’s win, attention turns to whether the talented Hawaiian legislator will be able to pull off re-election, with Election Day only six months away.

With the announcement of Charles Djou’s special election win in Hawaii’s first congressional district, attention turns to whether the talented Hawaiian legislator will be able to pull off re-election, with Election Day only six months away.

Even in a seemingly anti-incumbent year such as this, members of Congress have many advantages that they can bring to bear on their reelection bid:

1. Raising Money

Winning this special election will draw national attention to Charles Djou, especially with the symbolic attachment that comes with winning the President’s home district. In addition, incumbents routinely out-raise challengers by enormous amounts.

“One of the biggest advantages that you have as a member of Congress is the ability to collect campaign funds,” said Stephen Farnsworth, a politics professor at George Mason University. “A Republican victory in the special election would dramatically increase the amount of money that would go to [Djou] in the November election.”

2. Controlling the News Cycle

As a congressman, Djou will be able to set the media agenda – he’ll be able to draw attention to issues that benefit his reelection bid.  “The issues you choose to talk about…  the things that you present to the public about your time in Congress, that can drive a conversation in a way that a challenger usually can’t,” Farnsworth told FrumForum.

On the other hand, there will be several incumbency advantages that Djou will not be able to take part in:

1. Franking Privileges

Each congressman has the ability to send postage-free mailers to his or her constituents, otherwise known as ‘franking’. Over the years, this has increasingly changed from an information sheet with issues of relevance to the district to a tool for increasing name recognition in the hopes of reelection. The free postage can be worth tens of thousands of dollars to incumbents.

However, federal law prevents congressmen from ‘franking’ less than ninety days before an incumbent’s primary date. Since, Djou’s special election victory (and subsequent swearing-in) will bump up against this deadline, his office will not be able to use this privilege.

2. Bringing Home the Bacon

Many Congressmen increase their odds of reelection by arranging earmarks that will benefit the district. But Djou’s Republican Party is still in the minority, and there isn’t that much the least senior Republican in the House can do in terms of legislation or earmarks.

Being the freshest of the freshman, Djou won’t have much of a platform unless House leadership views his district as competitive (and thus worth the investment) – which they might not.

Political analysts are split as to whether Djou stands a chance at re-election. “It’s unlikely that he’ll be in Congress very long,” Stephen Farnsworth, a politics professor at George Mason University told FrumForum. “Special elections are bizarre animals under normal circumstances, and this is even stranger than a normal special election… Republicans might not get a chance to win very often in this district, and this might be the best chance they have.”

Kate Zhou, a political science professor at the University of Hawaii, rates Djou’s chances a little higher. “A November reelection will be harder, but is highly possible… because people in Hawaii are tired of business as usual,” said Zhou. “Democrats are in control, both in Hawaii, and in Washington, D.C., and unemployment seems to be getting worse and worse.”

Zhou explained that the internecine fighting with the Democratic Party, so crucial to giving Djou a leg up in this special election, could continue into the fall. Colleen Hanabusa, supported by senior Hawaiian Senator Daniel Inouye and powerful local labor unions, will still be at the throat of fellow Democrat Ed Case. Continued Democratic infighting and a primary that drags into mid-September could give Djou the space he needs to fundraise, door-knock and increase name recognition.

The lesson? Don’t count a talented and cunning politician like Charles Djou out – many dismissed his chances for winning this special election, and found themselves regretting it today.