Did the Dems Get the Message?

The Democratic leadership has said and seems to believe that they must pass the healthcare bill no matter what. But after the election in Massachusetts if the Democrats continue on this drive they will lose—and lose big.

Scott Brown’s victory in the Massachusetts Senate race vastly complicates the House-Senate discussions on the healthcare bill. I don't think Pelosi or Reid will get the message (yes, they are completely politically deaf), so I expect they will keep driving left, but I am not sure all the so-called moderate Democrats will stay with them. Sen. Evan Bayh (D-IN) said on television that he “feared the Democrats’ policy plans had gone too far to the left.” Sen. Jim Webb (D-Va.) said it "would only be fair and prudent that we suspend further votes on healthcare legislation until Brown is seated."  That is just the beginning and it will irritate Pelosi and Reid no end.

There will be a lot of political arm twisting and there will be a lot of fear. The message is -- if this can happen in Massachusetts, it can happen anywhere no matter how liked, loved or well funded a Member is. So I think some Democratic members will become even more nervous and will make the job of compromising to attain 218 and 60 votes respectively that much harder. That is especially true because Scott Brown’s victory is a victory for “independent” Republicans. He ran on a Republican platform, even life issues, which tells Republicans they can win with that message if they will actually follow through on it.

This of course will impact the leadership of both houses and their ability to get a health bill passed before Jan 27 when the President is due to give his State of the Union speech. And here I would like to make a point: in the Senate, the Republicans have a “conference” — the Leader of the Conference, Sen. McConnell, does have the power to persuade, to cajole, to bargain — but he does not have the unilateral power to assign committee seats, to distribute money to Senators or to Committees. All decisions of that nature are made by the Conference as a whole and are voted on by the Conference. On the other hand, the Democrats have a “caucus”—the leader of the caucus is Sen. Reid who does in fact have the power to assign people to committees, to distribute funds, to discipline his team. He has an enormous amount of power to make members accede to his demands. So Democrat members of either the House or the Senate will have some very unpleasant discussions in the not-too-distant future.

The White House and Democrat leadership are in a box—a self made box. They have said and they seem to believe that they must pass the healthcare bill no matter what. But the election in Massachusetts and what the members heard on their Christmas recess back home means that if the Democrats continue on the healthcare drive they will lose—and lose big. But to drop healthcare now means they will have nothing to show for all this effort—and will start the 2010 campaigns with nothing to show but a terrible economy, unimaginable debt and a war fought half-heartedly.  It will be interesting to watch who retires soon and who steps up to run for Senate in Indiana, Wisconsin and Oregon, seats which until now hadn’t been thought to be competitive.

I am told that the House Dems will not let the Senate bill pass — and not just because of the abortion language but because of the broader bill. The leadership may try to ram it through, but it won’t work. So the Dems are damned if they do, and damned if they don’t.

Here are some possibilities:

1. House passes Senate bill and it goes straight to the President for signature.

2. Finish the conference before Brown is seated (which may not be possible)

3. House doesn't pass Senate bill, and it's dead.

4. Attach something to budget and use reconciliation but the backlash will be brutal.

5. House tries to change Senate bill and sends back to Senate (highly unlikely)

But there is another issue that Scott Brown’s strategist Eric Fernstom highlighted in an interview with Robert Costa on NRO. Fernstrom said that their own internal polling showed that

‘the more potent issue here in Massachusetts was terrorism and the treatment of enemy combatants.’ … ‘Health care’, he says, ‘was helpful in fundraising, but it was the campaign’s focus on national security in the final week that he believes helped to give voters another issue to associate with Brown.’

And tonight in his victory speech, Brown got a huge ovation for saying that we ought to spend money buying weapons to kill terrorists, not hiring lawyers to defend them. That practical insight warms the heart of independents, moderate democrats and Republicans. And that wins.