Did Gop Lose Because Of Bush? Or Because Conservatism Is No Longer Relevant?

The key question for worried conservatives is whether the last two years of elections represents a repudiation of conservatism, particularly of the Reaganite brand, or is merely a rejection of George W. Bush and his perceived failures? In the 1950s, Sam Lubell argued that, at any time in history, one party is the dominant political force and the other merely reacts to it and fights on its terrain. Michael Lind argues that the Democrats are now the Sun party again. Being Lind he does it in as annoying a fashion as possible, and bases it on a number of false premises, but here is the argument in its strong form. So, do the demographic and social transformations of the last 20 years--transformations likely to continue--make a Reaganite conservatism impractical and doomed to defeat? Right now, the Republican party has virtually no presence in black America, is weak in Hispanic America, is rejected by the young, and also completely out of touch on social issues (as the argument goes), and the college educated (or miseducated) all flee from the Party as a vampire from light. The spectacle of Republicans in 2008 trying to “out Reagan” one another was dispiriting--but understandable. Even still--in a year with an unpopular Republican President, during an economic downturn and uncertain wars--a very old candidate with problems within his own party still garnered 47% of the vote. And this despite John McCain's weak ability to address people’s economic and health concerns in an lucid way, and the fact that he was outspent by as much as three to one while running in the teeth of media scorn. The Democratic Party is not the Sun. It is the beneficiary of a perfect political storm. I was around in 1992, kids. George H. Bush, moderate, Greenwich prep school educated, bipartisan, tax-raising, and internationalist did not get 40% of the vote. That was a drubbing. We have work to do. The horizon is not unclouded. We will shortly be dealt hard blows by an uncongenial political consensus. But socialism has inexplicably survived the permanent collapse of the Soviet Union; conservatism will survive a temporary collapse in the markets. Basic Republican values still prevail: Americans do not like to be overtaxed. They do not like to be overregulated. They mistrust establishments. They resist assaults on their religious values. They expect people to take care of themselves. These traits did not change when Barack Obama was elected. They are the key to understanding what conservatives need to do, and to create tensions within the Democratic coalition that can be exploited. Time to start thinking up concrete--and relevant--ways to do that.