Despite Threats, We're Winning the War on Terror

The reports of a terror threat tied to the 9/11 anniversary were, of course, cause for vigilance. But the particulars of the threat mentioned in media reports, a car bomb, does provide a modicum of evidence that the expensive, costly, oft-mismanaged War on Terror has not been fought for nothing.

Since the enormous carnage of 9/11, the major Islamist terror attacks outside of the Middle East have shown a great decline in sophistication and lethality. While hundreds died in 2002's Bali club bombings and 2004's Madrid train bombings, the last major coordinated Islamist attack on the West, 2005's London transport bombings, was a reasonably simple operation that killed only 54.

Since then, not a single al-Qaeda plot directed at the West has succeeded in killing anyone. (The organization has continued to do a great deal of damage in Iraq and a deranged individual with radical Islamist sympathies murdered a solider in Arkansas 2 years ago.) The 9/11 plot cost several million dollars and involved 20 people on the ground in the United States with, likely, hundreds more in supporting roles in Afghanistan. A car bombing can be rigged for a few thousand dollars by one or two people.

While a car bomb would be a cause for concern and a tragedy, even a successful one that left scores of dead bodies wouldn't have an impact anything like 9/11. In short, if the intelligence reports are right, there's a good deal of evidence that the West is winning the War on Terror.

Of course, there's no way to be absolutely certain of al-Qaeda's capacities and, by definition, the best information about terror attacks isn't public knowledge. But, if current media reports are to be believed, there's certainly reason to believe that we're safer from terrorist attacks than we were ten years ago.