Dems Could Lose House for Decade
The Washington Post writes:
For Democrats facing the likely prospect of losing control of the House of Representatives for the next two years, there is an even scarier thought: losing it for the next decade.
Republican wins in Tuesday's midterm elections are expected to sweep far down the ballot to state legislatures across the country, giving the GOP a pronounced political advantage as the parties tackle redistricting next year. It's the legislatures that are tasked with the once-a-decade, complicated and partisan process of redrawing congressional boundaries based on population shifts gleaned from the census.
In most states, the party that controls the political process controls the map. Republican operatives are predicting that the GOP will pick up as many as 500 additional seats, and wrestle majorities in legislatures away from the Democrats in anywhere from 10 to 18 states.
"We've got a minimum of 11 or 12 chambers going our way - and it could be as high as 17," said Chris Jankowski, director of the Republican State Leadership Committee's REDMAP project.
The goal for legislatures is to carve congressional districts based on voter registration in order to secure partisan victories - in other words, to hand-pick voters. The process often is contentious, resulting in oddly drawn districts to favor candidates - a process known as gerrymandering.
Jankowski is predicting that Republicans are well positioned to gain control of the New York Senate - a major prize since the lower body will remain Democratic and Democrat Andrew Cuomo probably will become governor. Having control of the New York Senate "gives us a seat at the table" when the maps are drawn, Jankowski said. Republicans said they are also competitive in Pennsylvania and Ohio, where Democrats are fighting to hold on to slim majorities.
Michael Sargeant, executive director of the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, acknowledged that his side could face some harsh setbacks. "It could be a couple or it could be more," he said. "I see a number of races too close to call. Elections are funny. A lot of things can happen."
New York, Ohio and Pennsylvania have been among the most intensely fought battlegrounds at the state level because all three states are expected to lose seats in Congress, putting significant power to determine who gets the remaining seats in the hands of the legislatures. In most states, governors also play a key role because they have veto power over the maps, and indicators point to Republicans picking up a half-dozen or more governorships.
