Dem Wins in NY-26

Politico reports:

Democrat Kathy Hochul defeated Republican Jane Corwin in a western New York special election that emerged as a political testing ground for the ambitious GOP blueprint to reform Medicare.

Fueled by a late wave of commercials blasting Corwin over her support for the controversial House Republican budget plan, Hochul surged in a race that few initially expected her to prevail in.

With 91 percent of precincts reporting, Hochul held a commanding 48 percent to 42 percent lead over Corwin. Tea party candidate Jack Davis received 9 percent.

Hochul’s against-the-odds win, national Democrats argued, proved the national unpopularity of the GOP proposal, given the district’s long history of supporting Republican candidates.

Republicans earlier in the day appeared to be bracing themselves for a loss in a race they were once seen as a lock to win. On Tuesday morning, National Republican Congressional Committee Chairman Pete Sessions offered a decidedly downcast assessment of the race in a closed-door caucus meeting, and urged fellow Republicans to push back on efforts to brand the race a referendum on Medicare.

Complicating the race was Davis, a wealthy industrialist and Democrat-turned-tea party candidate who spent nearly $3 million out of his own pocket on the race. He spent his candidacy warning the area’s blue-collar voters that they were losing their jobs to China.

GOP officials grew increasingly concerned as polls showed Davis siphoning GOP voters from Corwin. With just several weeks left in the race, the NRCC and American Crossroads, a conservative group, poured hundreds of thousands of dollars into attack ads slamming Davis.

Republicans attempted to downplay the importance of the contest, calling it a three-way brawl that says little about the broader national landscape and the electorate’s reception to the budget.

“Republican Jane Corwin ran a hard-fought campaign against two well-funded Democrats, including one masquerading under the Tea Party name. Obviously, each side would rather win a special election than lose, but to predict the future based on the results of this unusual race is naive and risky,” Sessions said in a statement.

But on the ground, it was apparent that the issue had registered.

In interviews at polling places, Republicans concerned about taxes and Obama’s health care law acknowledged that the race was consumed by the Ryan budget.

“It seems like the only issue, which is unfortunate because there’s a lot more going on,” said Republican Aimee Hobika, a 35-year-old physician who lives in a suburb outside Buffalo. Hobika said she voted for Corwin.

Democrats made clear that Medicare had emerged as a potent weapon for the party. 

“Kathy Hochul’s victory tonight is a tribute to Democrats’ commitment to preserve and strengthen Medicare, create jobs, and grow our economy,” House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi said in a statement. “And it sends a clear message that will echo nationwide: Republicans will be held accountable for their vote to end Medicare.”