Dead Heat in NY-23
A Daily Kos poll released today showed Conservative Doug Hoffman pulling within one point of Democrat Bill Owens in the tightly contested NY-23 congressional race, well within the four point margin of error.
Hoffman holds the support of 32% of respondents polled, while Owens leads slightly with 33%. Dede Scozzafava, the Republican, trails both by a large margin, with only 21% support.
This is a dramatic change from the last Kos poll, released less than a week ago. In less than a week, Hoffman has jumped by nine points, mirrored by a corresponding drop in Scozzafava's support.
In terms of favorable/unfavorable ratings, Hoffman leads the pack with a score of +15, followed by Owens at +10, and Scozzafava at a dismal -14.
A driving factor in the unpredictability of this race has been the massive amount of money spent and raised in the district.
“People are listening to us now, we’re raising money faster than we can bring it to the bank... we have the momentum,” said Mike Long, chairman of the New York Conservative Party, in an interview with NewMajority.
Siena pollster Steven Greenberg told NewMajority last week that a Hoffman victory was “probably a long shot”, but left room for a chance for him to win.
Greenberg attributed the volatility in polling numbers to negative advertising. “The tenor of the campaign’s negative commercials is turning voters on to the race... It’s clear that it’s easy to spend money in upstate New York,” said Greenberg.
Eyes now turn to the last major poll that will be released before Election Day, put out by the Siena Research Institute. Siena plans to release its final poll this weekend, which could set the tone for all three campaigns going into November 3rd.
“It will come down to the wire,” said Greenberg.