Crist's Fight Just Got Tougher

Early polls suggest that with Democrat Kendrick Meek in the Florida Senate race, Charlie Crist will have a tough time catching up to GOP-backed Marco Rubio.

The most notable outcome from Tuesday night’s election is the continuing high level of enthusiasm among GOP voters turning out for primaries.  In Florida, an active and, at times, contentious Democratic primary drew just over 800,000 voters in nominating Congressman Kendrick Meek.  On the Republican side, where Marco Rubio ran an essentially uncontested race for the GOP nomination, over 1.2 million votes were cast.

Of course, the real race in Florida has never been between the Republican and Democratic candidates but in the split among Republicans between Rubio and Republican-turned-independent Charlie Crist.  Early polling on the race was inconclusive as to which Democrat would have the greatest impact on the November outcome.  More recent polls of likely voters show that with Meek as the nominee, Rubio stretches his lead over Crist to between 5 and 8 points.  This week’s Democratic-affiliated Public Policy Polling (PPP) shows Rubio leading Crist 40 to 32 with Meek picking up just 17 percent and 11 percent remaining undecided.   It is hard to imagine how Meek’s share of the vote could drop much further which means Crist must capture almost 75 percent of the undecided vote in order to close the gap with Rubio.  Any Crist effort to court Democrats more assiduously than he already is would probably backfire by driving moderate Republicans and independent voters toward Rubio.  It isn’t over until it’s over but Crist has a very steep hill to climb.

In Arizona, the Mac is Back.  McCain’s victory over J.D. Hayworth is a reminder that money still matters –even in a year when incumbency is a dirty word.  Preliminary accounting shows McCain outspent Hayworth by 10-to-1.  Moreover, McCain’s campaign was strategically and tactically brilliant in breaking Hayworth’s hold on the conservative base of the party.   Makes one wonder:  where was this John McCain in 2008?  John Heilmann and Mark Helprin argue in Game Change that the meandering nature of the presidential campaign was an outgrowth of McCain’s ambivalence about running for president in the first place.   McCain’s performance over the past year should put to rest any doubts that he really wants to continue as a United States Senator and probably will.