Coleman for Gov?
It is now widely reported in the Minnesota press that former Senator Norm Coleman will run for Gov. Pawlenty’s soon to be vacated seat in 2010. The most telling sign, reports Minnesota Public Radio, is former state auditor Pat Anderson’s withdrawal from the race just a day after talking to Coleman. Coleman will bring big name status to the race, less than a year after conceding to Al Franken in one of the lengthiest electoral recounts in recent history. MPR reports that
Coleman automatically becomes the favorite to win the Republican nomination and enters the general election with 1,211,590 votes, the number he picked up in his race for U.S. Senate against Al Franken. The bitterness escalated during the protracted recount with Franken, but it's unlikely Coleman supporters defected to the DFL side because of it.
Keep that vote number in mind because it's almost 200,000 more than Tim Pawlenty got in 2008, and 300,000 more than Pawlenty got in 2002. In both cases, the Independence Party (previously the Reform Party) fielded a strong candidate. That isn't the case this year. It's also true, of course, that those Independent votes don't automatically go to a Republican.
The question is if Coleman has worn out his welcome in Minnesota. He has lost two out of his last three major campaigns there (to Gov. Jesse Ventura and Sen. Al Franken), and the recent recount was an exhausting experience for the state. Ultimately, fortune may be on his side. 2010 promises to be a strong year for Republicans of all stripes. Coleman’s name recognition and fundraising prowess alone (he accompanied Pawlenty to Texas this week), combined with the national backlash against Democrats may be enough to push him through to victory. Can the GOP hold the governorship for three consecutive terms in a progressive swing state? Coleman may be our best shot.