Can Romney's Front-Runner Status Last?

Polls show Mitt Romney is the favored GOP presidential candidate for 2012. But will his big poll lead translate into a smooth ride to the nomination?

Thanks to the backing of moderate Republicans, Mitt Romney is still the front-runner for the GOP's 2012 presidential nomination.  But, as my latest column for The Week points out, he faces some tough challenges ahead.

Tea Party, Shmea Party. Post-election surveys suggest that Mitt Romney still leads as the favored Republican presidential candidate for 2012.

His lead looks especially big in New Hampshire: Almost 30 points.

Does this big lead translate into a smooth ride to the nomination?

That depends on whether Romney's campaign follows the path of George W. Bush's in 2000 — or Hillary Clinton's in 2008.

Here's the happy scenario for Romney: Like Bush in 2000, Romney is the Republican heir apparent in 2012. Like Bush, Romney has the backing of the party's biggest donors. Like Bush, Romney has national campaign experience. Like Bush, Romney faces opponents who can be dismissed as either obscure (Pawlenty, Daniels) or extreme (Palin, Gingrich.)

Finally, like Bush, Romney faces one early bump on the way to the nomination (Romney polls badly in Iowa, just as Bush did in New Hampshire) — but otherwise seems the most popular candidate in most of the early voting states.

So: Smooth sailing?

Maybe not. Everything that can be said of Romney and Bush could have been said of Hillary Clinton. Heir apparent? Check. Support of biggest donors? Check. National-campaign experience? Check. Opponents obscure (Barack Obama) or extreme (John Edwards)? Few visible roadblocks ahead?

Check, check, and check.

Even if Hillary Clinton had every advantage, her campaign was ultimately sunk by two holes beneath the water line: Her vote for the Iraq war and the perception of her husband's administration as too conservative on economic issues.

These two issues damaged Clinton with the most intense party activists — and it was these activists who dominated the caucus states that gave Barack Obama his margin of victory.

Now look again at Romney. The sort of person who writes a big check to the GOP every cycle may see in Romney a competent CEO for the United States. But to the people who will spend hours in an Iowa caucus room, Romney also has two holes below his water line: TARP and healthcare reform.

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