Can Rick Barber Pull Off a Tea Party Upset?
Today, Republicans in Alabama's 2nd district will choose between Martha Roby and Tea Party candidate, Rick Barber, in the primary run-off.
Today, Tuesday, July 13, Republicans in Alabama’s 2nd congressional district will nominate their candidate for Congress in a run-off election. Their choices are Martha Roby, a former member of the Montgomery City Council, and Rick Barber, a Tea Party candidate who released a web ad comparing taxation to the holocaust. Barber is not expected to win but he has successfully made his campaign relevant and managed to go from having no name recognition in the district to getting interviewed on cable news. It's a far cry from where he was when he started.
When FrumForum first looked into Barber’s candidacy in March, his candidacy was best described as a long shot. No one that FrumForum spoke to said that he would participate in the run-off after the primary, let alone get 2nd place in the primary.
Barber received 28% of the vote. FrumForum went over the results from individual counties (provided by the Alabama GOP) to try and determine if there was a strong correlation between factors such as wealth or income and Barber’s performance at the polls. No such pattern presented itself. He seemed to have gained a consistent level of support across the district, roughly 20% to 30% in each of the counties.
Fundraising also suggests some competitiveness from Barber’s campaign. FEC filings from May to July show that Roby raised more then $100,000 while Barber only managed to raise around $47,000. However, if only contributions from individuals and not PACs are counted, Barber raised $47,000 in comparison to $67,000 for Roby. Roby’s support from PACs is not shocking since she has been part of the NRCC’s “Young Gun” fundraising campaign since 2009.
A political analyst in Alabama characterized the PAC and GOP establishment support for Martha Roby as “protecting” their investment in her, and pointed out that while Roby may be more competitive in the general election, that they also had to make sure she survived the process to get there.
Barber’s most important success has been raising name recognition. Barber’s campaign manager explained to FrumForum that “We knew she [Roby] was going to have more money than us. So we went national.” With the release of two provocative web ads titled “Gather Your Armies” and “Slavery” Barber gained national attention, and criticism. (Even Glenn Beck found the ads extreme and called Barber a ‘dope’ on his radio show.)
The Barber campaign has defended the ads, not only in terms of content but also as strategy. “If we have a considerable bump over 28%, it’s going to be because of that strategy” argues Barber’s campaign manager. Not only will Tuesday’s run-off test Barber’s campaigning ability, it will be another test of what happens in a “Tea Party vs. Establishment” race. Unlike the race in Virginia’s 5th congressional district, Barber won’t have to split his vote with six other candidates.
Follow Noah Kristula-Green on Twitter: @noahkgreen