Can Republicans Regain Gillibrand's Seat?

With Hudson Valley congresswoman Kirsten Gillibrand selected to succeed Hillary Clinton as New York's junior senator, there is a rare opportunity for Republicans to gain back a formerly safe seat they first lost in 2006. The open question is who county-chairs will select to run in the special election scheduled in 60 days. Here is the state of play:

First, as Nancy Pelosi no doubt knows, New York's 20th Congressional District – stretching from Cooperstown to Lake Placid – enjoys an 80,000 Republican registration advantage. It voted for Bush back in 2000 and 2004 – despite the district's Democratic roots, as home to both Martin Van Buren and Franklin D. Roosevelt.

But the district swung to the politically connected and well-funded lawyer Kirsten Gillibrand in 2006, after the incumbent John Sweeney was caught in a flurry of well timed personal scandals. Gillibrand was able to ride the Bush backlash (armed with a centrist Blue Dog voting record) to a devastating re-election over former state GOP chairman Sandy Treadwell, who spent millions and lost 60-40.

Now with Gillibrand getting a boost to the Senate, and without an obvious successor in a solidly Republican district, this should be the prime opportunity for the GOP to get its groove back in a state with only three Republican congressmen left.

But today's county-chairman vote determining the GOP candidate for the special election looks likely to illustrate the problems of New York's Republican Party, rather than solve them. It appears that the party is set to nominate the 58-year old Assembly Minority leader Jim Tedesco – despite the fact he lives outside the district – or 68-year old State Senator Betty Little, passing over the respected fiscal conservative and former 2006 Gubernatorial nominee John Faso or the young attorney and former Bloomberg aide Richard Wager, who won grassroots support against Treadwell in the 2006 primary.

The final results are expected to be announced later today. More than a dozen Democrats are vying for a similar nomination, but Republicans should have the edge in this race – if they nominate a candidate who can win broad support with new ideas, especially on the fiscal crisis. Resorting to the clubhouse is not the way to win back the House.