Can Pataki Play the Spoiler?

New York state is losing population, but is still a rich source of delegates. If former NY Governor George Pataki runs in 2012, he could win a decent number of delegates in his home state, and use that leverage to play kingmaker at the convention.

There are three reasons to jump into a Republican presidential primary.

1) Because you can win.

2) Because you want to take away votes and delegates from the person you don't want to win, and give them to the person that you do want to win.

3) Because you are delusional.

Aside from my colleague Jeb Golinkin, nobody is thinking that George Pataki is floating his trial balloon because of reason one.  Most of the other people I've read are thinking reason three.

I'm thinking it's reason two, personally.  I'd look at the example of Earl Warren of California, whose California delegation led by Richard Nixon played a rather important role in giving the nomination to Eisenhower in 1952.  Think about it: New York is losing population, but like Earl Warren's California, it's a rich source of delegates.  What if Pataki turns out to be able to win a decent number of delegates in his home state, and wires enough votes elsewhere to play a role in a brokered pre-convention? (No, we won't see a brokered convention; all the action will happen ahead of time, away from the floor show.) Along with giving all of us here at FrumForum a whole bunch to write about, the fight could have the salutary effect of giving the Republicans an opportunity to actually hash out their differences, not on the blogs, but in an actual situation with an actual important decision at stake, just as the Democrats did ahead of the 2008 election.

Of course, the difference will be that the best Pataki can hope for is third place, not second.  But if being number three gives you your choice between a close number one and two, then third is a good place to be.

It'd probably not work out quite that way.  But it's probably worth a shot.