Can Murkowski Hold Off a Tea Party Upset?

Recent polls suggest that Sarah Palin and Tea Party-backed candidate Joe Miller may be closing the gap with Sen. Murkowski in Alaska's GOP Senate primary.

Some members of the political media in Washington D.C. have already declared Sarah Palin and the Tea Party the loser in Alaska’s GOP Senate primary. Talking Points Memo has a post entitled “Why Sarah Palin Is About To Lose Big Time In Alaska's Primary.” This sentiment certainly seemed plausible since a poll released in mid-July showed incumbent Sen. Lisa Murkowski leading over Tea Party and Sarah Palin-backed insurgent Joe Miller by 61-29%.

However, recent polling suggests that the race may be closer and at least one political analyst in Alaska is also skeptical that this race is already over. The Wall Street Journal reports that Murkowski’s lead is down and the polls now show her leading 47% to 35%. The Journal describes this as “below the level of support where an incumbent can be considered safe.”

In addition, Alaskan pollster Mark Hellenthal is also hedging his bets: “Where before I said she’s going to win, now I say she might win.” Hellenthal points to how Murkowski waited till the day before election day to drop a radio ad which accused Joe Miller of lying about her record. Hellenthal points out that the Murkowski campaign has been the target of negative attacks for a significant part of the campaign, and that they would only start to go negative themselves if their internal polling suggested that the race was tightening.

Arthur Hackney, a political consultant, expressed a similar opinion that the race will be much closer than some are predicting, citing the radio attack ad as too little too late. “She’s been slammed in ways she could have easily responded to.” “You don’t answer TV with radio.” Hackney also explained that Sarah Palin’s endorsement mattered less for her personal appeal in the state, and more for her ability to draw attention to the race at all, “This is not about Sarah Palin as a power in Alaska, her power was that she got the Tea Party to put money into this.” The Tea Party Express PAC has spent over $560,000 in Alaska and used that money for attack ads like the one below slamming her as “liberal”:

Murkowski might still win her primary, but a close result may suggest that Murkowski did not do all she could to ensure her victory.

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