Can Graham Survive as a Maverick?

This week, a third GOP county organization in South Carolina voted to censure Senator Lindsey Graham. Is Graham in real political trouble?

Greenville County is the largest county in South Carolina. On Tuesday, the Republican organization in Greenville County passed a resolution condemning Senator Lindsey Graham for his "support of President Obama and the Democratic Party's liberal agenda for the United States.” It is the third county organization to pass such a measure. Is Graham in trouble?

Dr. Bruce W. Ransom, a professor of Political Science at Clemson, thinks not much. Dr. Ransom acknowledged that Graham “has taken some hits, politically speaking, with his conservative base of voters here in South Carolina." However: "I don't think anyone can beat him."

South Carolina Republican political strategist Wesley Donahue agreed with Dr. Ransom's assessment that it was too early to say that Graham is any sort of real political trouble. “There are four years until Senator Graham is up for reelection and there will be a lot of issues that pop up in that time. He's got plenty of time to get back on their good sides” said Donahue.

But not everyone I spoke with was so quick to shrug off Senator Graham's “issues.” Jay Cost, who authors RealClearPolitics' HorseRaceBlog, thinks that Lindsey Graham has himself a political problem: “He thwarts the state party elites on high-profile issues too often.  Remember: state party elites (donors, high profile people, regular activists, etc) are usually to the right of primary electorates, which are to the right of general electorates, and South Carolina is to the right of most states in the Union.  Graham has a very conservative audience back home. His high profile moderate stands suggest that he is to the left of the South Carolina GOP elite.  That's a political problem.”

The process by which Greenville County censured Graham supports Cost's view. The censure originated in the county party's “Executive Committee."  Individuals on the “Executive Committee” are elected at the precinct level, with each precinct getting one vote. Sixty-one members of the committee voted in favor of the harshly worded rebuke of Graham, with only two opposing.

Should Lindsey Graham change his political behavior? The Senate needs more senators (from both sides of the aisle) with the guts to ignore groupthink and actually go about trying to solve a problem now and again. But one thing the Senator could do to make his life easier down the road is lower his national profile. Cooperating with The New York Times Magazine’s swooning profile in which Graham is portrayed as openly hostile to conservative ideologues might not be the wisest move of all time.

Follow Jeb on twitter @JGolinkin