Cal Pot Proposition Goes Up in Smoke
UPDATED: California's proposition 19, but signs suggest that support for such measures will only grow.
Former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson is a very interesting Republican, one who is either very dumb or very brave. When he called earlier he quickly launched into his reasons for opposing marijuana prohibition: budgetary savings, civil liberties, personal freedom and less government all topped the list. Interestingly the Governor then argued that despite media reports of libertarian leanings in the tea party, he had not seen much evidence of such a leaning but was hopeful it would come out.
I can’t help but wonder if this former two-term Governor will catch on. If he fails to ignite a fire, what will that say about the libertarian wing of the GOP? On the other hand, if he does catch on will he become a Barry Goldwater, a Ronald Reagan, or merely a Ron Paul?
During the course of the Prop 19 campaign I have met a number of Republicans like Governor Johnson who make rational arguments for marijuana reform – just as a rational argument can be made for keeping marijuana legal. Even though pot reform has begun to move out of the fringes it clearly remains out of the mainstream – just see how elected officials of both parties avoided supporting Prop 19. Not one major (current) elected official publicly supported or campaigned for Prop 19.
On the other hand, losing with 45% of the vote is pretty impressive for an issue that would have been laughed off the ballot box just a few years ago. The trends suggest that support for marijuana reform is likely to continue growing and this was also a bad year for it to be on the ballot. Conservative anger at the Democratic Congress guaranteed that an older, white electorate would turn out – an electorate likely to vote down drug reform. Would the results have been different in a democratic election wave? Hard to say, yet marijuana reform advocates have vowed to place the issue back on the ballot in 2012 or 2014.
Posted at 1:00am
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I just received a call from former Republican Governor Gary Johnson who has been a long-time advocate of marijuana reform. Governor Johnson called the defeat of Proposition 19 "regrettable" and said "The fact that marijuana reform is getting discussed is a good thing, this is an issue that won't go away and one day we will stop the insanity of marijuana prohibition."
Posted at 12:16am
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The Los Angeles Times is projecting defeat for Prop 19 based on exit polling. With 8% of precincts reporting, the ballot initiative is losing 57% - 43%.
Posted at 11: 48pm
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With 2% of precincts reporting, Yes on 19 has 43% of the Vote with 57% of voters rejecting marijuana legalization.
Posted at 11:29pm
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The very first returns are in from California and the Yes on Prop 19 side has 49% compared to 51% against legalizing marijuana. But these returns are early. Only 22, 000 votes have been reported.
Posted at 11:26pm
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Prop 19 could still win – polls do not close in California until 8 pm and no returns will be made public until then. Yet supporters privately voice a belief their effort will fail. What is particularly surprising is many supporters had predicted marijuana reform would be the new Democratic wedge issue, driving voters to the polls who would also vote for Democratic candidates. Young voters were particularly expected to come out in support of the measure. If successful here in California, it was to be a model that could be used in other states to drive Democratic turnout.
It does not appear to be the wedge issue many had hoped for. Only 1 in 10 voters in early exit polls named Prop 19 as their main reason for voting.
Posted at 9:29pm
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Republicans inside the Yes on Prop 19 campaign tried to describe the mood as excited and upbeat despite polls suggesting the historic campaign may go down to defeat. Ann Lee, an 81 year old self described lifelong Republican and devout Catholic, is a Harris County, TX GOP executive committeewoman who gave up several weeks to campaign for Prop 19. In conversations Ms. Lee quickly recites her reasons for legalization, “Republicans stand for three things: Smaller government, fiscal restraint, and less intrusion into our personal lives”, adding “The drug war is the opposite of these three things”. Her husband, Bob Lee , cast his first vote for Thomas Dewey and has voted GOP ever since. He also supports marijuana reform which he argues is a matter of civil liberties.
Nonetheless, Ms. Lee hedged her bets in case of an expected defeat by arguing “even if the polls don’t go our way we have made a lasting change in the debate, marijuana reform is now more mainstream than ever.”
Optimism is appearing to fade quickly and early exit polls showed only 1 in 10 voters were mainly motivated by Prop 19, suggesting marijuana reform may not be the vote driver many had predicted. Ms. Lee’s son Richard has been a leader in the effort to legalize marijuana and he vowed today to continue the fight if Prop 19 is defeated. Leaders have already held what they say is their last press conference.
Posted at 8:46pm
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California votes today on a historic first for any American state, the complete legalization, not just decriminalization, of marijuana. Decriminalization leaves a drug technically illegal (a misdemeanor), often with a small fine. Proposition 19 would not only allow possession of up to 1 ounce of marijuana, but also allows residents to grow up to 25 square feet of the plant. Prop 19 also permits commercial cultivation of the drug.
Legally of course, marijuana possession or production would remain a federal crime.
Marijuana has been on many state ballots before but always as an initiative to either decriminalize the drug or to allow its sale and use when prescribed by a physician. Because this initiative is a first for the U.S. it has garnered a great deal of media attention.
Prop 19 supporters argue legalization would save billions in law enforcement cost while bringing in needed tax revenue. They also argue that legalization would undercut the violent drug trade while reducing government involvement in the lives of citizens.
Prop 19 opponents argue that legalizing marijuana will encourage youth to experiment with drugs and that marijuana is a “gateway” drug leading to the use of even stronger drugs such as cocaine or heroin.
The ballot initiative began this campaign leading in the polls by 6-9 percentage points but is now in a statistical dead heat in most polls with a few showing Prop 19 losing.
No matter what happens in this campaign, possession of less than one ounce of marijuana will have no criminal penalties in California come January 1, 2011 under a law just signed by Republican Governor Schwarzenegger.
Posted at 7:07pm