Cal GOP Senate Candidates Duel Over Polls
A new Public Policy Polling survey shows Carly Fiorina opening a lead in the race to win the GOP California Senate nomination, but her rivals are drawing attention to other polls which show a tighter race.
A new Public Policy Polling survey finds that Carly Fiorina has opened up a wide lead in her race to win the GOP California Senate nomination. The poll shows Fiorina getting 41% of the vote while her opponents, Tom Campbell and Chuck DeVore, win only 21% and 16% respectively.
Fiorina holds a massive resource advantage and she is also the only candidate with significant name recognition among Republican primary voters. According to the PPP poll, 54% of Republican primary voters have no opinion of Fiorina at all while 62% of California GOP primary voters do not have an opinion of DeVore.
If these numbers are accurate, DeVore may well be finished. PPP points out that closing a 25 point name recognition gap while also operating with scarce resources in a state as large as California will be close to impossible. Campbell runs better than Fiorina among moderates (32-30) but Fiorina dominates Campbell among conservatives (47%-15%). With Fiorina's funds, she can continue to run ads attacking Campbell's conservative bona-fides meaning that Campbell will have a very hard time turning around his image among conservatives.
Devore spokesman Josh Trevino pointed to a Survey USA poll released on May 10th that showed Campbell beating Fiorina 35% to 24% with DeVore getting 15% of the vote as evidence of the high degree of volatility in polling. Trevino stressed that DeVore remained “confident.” He also cited an internal poll the campaign released yesterday showing Fiorina getting 28%, Campbell getting 26%, and DeVore getting 19% as evidence that DeVore was still very much alive in the race. Trevino did acknowledge that DeVore was the underdog, but added that “We will just have to see which poll is right come election day.”
Fiorina spokesman Amy Thoma noted that while DeVore has been running for “almost two years,” the poll is further evidence that his campaign has failed to “gain any real traction.” Thoma added that “there is an emerging consensus among California conservatives that Carly Fiorina is the right candidate to beat Barbara Boxer.” Thoma did not directly respond to questions regarding whether Fiorina's campaign would focus on Campbell during the home stretch of the primary, adding only that “we will be talking to all California Republicans.”
As for Tom Campbell's campaign, which a Daily Kos/ Research 2000 poll from May 21st showed leading Fiorina and DeVore 37-22-14, they think that PPP's numbers are off. In an email to FrumForum, Campbell spokesperson Jamie Fisfis said that their campaign internal polls “show a much tighter race and we are on TV (since last Friday) so we are catching up on name recognition.”
With all of these different numbers floating around, who knows what to think. Fiorina's resource advantage makes her the frontrunner, but how far ahead (or behind, at least according to Daily Kos....) is anyone's guess.