Boehner Can't Win the Shutdown

A new poll shows most GOP operatives opposed to a government shutdown. No doubt they remember what happened the last time.

For members of Congress swept into the House on a surge of populist Tea Party support, shutting down the federal government may sound like a principled stand to take against a government and president they see as hell-bent on spending the country right into a fiscal grave, but the men and woman that the party pays the big bucks to run campaigns know better.

The latest version of National Journal’s political insiders poll shows that nearly 65% of GOP political operatives say that it isn’t in the Republican Party’s interest to shut down the federal government, while most Democratic insiders are pretty fired up about the possibility.  Why?  Perhaps because the party insiders have longer memories.  They will, no doubt, vividly remember the last time a popular Democratic President struggled with a healthcare law during his first term, leading to a massive Republican surge in the midterms.  Seeing a chance to prove a point, an emboldened young congressman from Georgia named Newt Gingrich forced President Clinton to shut down the federal government.  Needless to say, Bill Clinton was re-elected and Newt has never been the same since.

There are a number of reasons that have nothing to do with history why it’s a bad idea to force President Obama to shut the government down (for starters: the markets won’t respond well) but if John Boehner takes only one lesson away from the historical fiasco, it should be that the Speaker of the House is not well positioned to win a pure communications war with the President of the United States.  Many Americans don’t even know who John Boehner is.  The President has the ear of the nation whenever he wants it.  And unlike the Speaker, who has to collaborate with his fellow GOP House members, the President can act unilaterally.  The White House communications operation, coupled with the President’s visibility, makes picking a fight with this President a very bad idea.  Republicans may well have superior ideas (maybe), but President Obama has a superior ability to roll out a message in a short period of time.  He will win in a government shutdown, just like President Clinton did.

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